Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Looking At The Bigger Picture

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SPX retested the retracement low this morning, so the Three Day Rule target has been reached. This is a return to form after the first fail on this stat since the start of 2007 in April/May 2018. Still the strongest stat I follow. So what now?

From a cycles perspective there is a cycle high window in January, then a big cycle low in May 2019 at which we are thinking we should see the main low for this move. The ideal target for that low then would be a test of rising megaphone support from the 2011 low to be hit in the 2370 area, which would also be at the 50% retracement of the move up from the 2016 low. There are two very decent looking options for reversal on the way.

The first is in the the 2655-70 area, from where we could see a reversal to retest the high, to set up a double top looking for the main target area. (more…)

How to Make a Billion Bucks

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There are a couple of seemingly unrelated events approaching. First, in a few weeks, there is the 17th anniversary of the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001. Second, it seems nearly inevitable that Amazon will become the world’s second trillion dollar company, following in AAPL’s footsteps. I guess they are going in alphabetical order.

I was curious what the cheapest price Amazon was after the Internet bubble burst. It turns out it was on October 1, 2001. I was struck by that date, because it was so soon after the attacks. I decided to look at what Amazon did when the market reopened after the attacks, and I’ve tinted it below. As you can see, it’s pretty much a blip. Within a couple of weeks, it got down to $5.51, and it hasn’t looked back since. (It’s approaching $2,000 now).

buyamzn (more…)

Can Bonds Relax?

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The only red on my screen this morning (and it’s down only the tiniest bit) is bonds. This is a market I watch terribly closely, because as I’ve said through most of 2018, the core shift I’m looking for is an increase in interest rates and an accompanying decrease in real estate valuations. Through the course of the year, the now-broken trendline has done an effective job of repelling prices (arrows). At the moment, my fondest hope is that prices don’t either bother getting back to the trendline and instead turn away from that green tinted area.

ZBSHORT (more…)

Bringing Bad Things to Life

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General Electric has been falling for two solid years, having lost about two-thirds of its value. Let’s face it, ANY stock which can do that poorly in this completely fake, central-bank-supported, sugar-high of a market has got to have SERIOUS trouble. I thought it might manage to double bottom, but nope – – even with markets near lifetime highs, this piece of crap is breaking down to levels not seen since 2011.

slopechart GE (more…)