Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Janus Flag Targets

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On Friday afternoon. in the webinar I posted on my twitter, I was talking about the either way setup that had formed on equity indices with the formation and break down from head and shoulders patterns on SPX, NDX, RUT and INDU. I noted that on this setup there were only two strong targets to watch, and that was either a move to the H&S target, on SPX a retracement to the May low at 2766, or a rejection back up into a retest of the June high. In the case of the rejection that would be a pattern that I would call a Janus (Bull) Flag, I see a lot of these and they make the rejection/retest target 80% to 90% of the time. When the target isn’t reached there is often a near miss.

The H&S patterns have since all failed, so the Janus Flag targets are fixed on all of those indices and in the absence of strong evidence to the contrary, I’m expecting those targets to be reached.SPX 60min chart:

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The Greatest Fool

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It has been strange watching the markets climb higher in this tremendously strong impulse at the same time as the Fed and others have been talking about a possible contraction in world GDP this year of 25% or more, by far the worst world contraction on record, in the shortest time. I noticed an analyst tweeting about a conversation he had with a four year old last week about the markets where the four year old was talking about just buying in the expectation that an even greater fool would buy the position at an even more absurdly higher price in the near future. That seemed surreal, but the markets look increasingly surreal at the moment.

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Staying On Target

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I tweeted an excerpt from my premarket video on Thursday last week where I was talking about the ideal path for ES over the coming days and the plan was to see a high respecting a trendline then in the mid-3060s, seen on Thursday afternoon, then a retracement into the 3000 area, seen on Friday, and then a push into 3100 area for the middle of this week, currently in progress. With the historical stats for today and tomorrow both over 70% green on SPX, I’m thinking that level might be seen before the close tomorrow. We’ll see.

In the short term I have short term wedge resistance on the SPX 15min chart in the 3085-90 area, and that is the next obvious target.

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Full Of Sound And Fury, Signifying Nothing

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It’s been an exciting week, with wild moves, bold pronouncements about markets, terrible economic news, expectations about interventions by governments, the number of US confirmed cases of COVID-19 climbing over a million, deaths from COVID-19 in the US climbing over 60,000 and over 235,000 worldwide. Exhausting and TGIF.

So what happened on the SPX over the course of the week? Well SPX closed last Friday at 2836.74, and closed tonight at 2830.71, so it dropped 6.03 handles over the week. Like a rollercoaster it was a wild ride that ultimately stopped sedately back where it started.

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