I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Double Tops Forming
I’ve mostly been looking at charts with double-tops forming this morning. First I’ll show the possible major double-top that may be forming on the SPX daily chart. That would trigger a target in the 1625 area on a sustained break below 1737, but in practical terms a break below strong rising support from the 1560 low, now in the 1750 area, would look extremely bearish. This is not my primary scenario here, but I’ll be considering it seriously if we should see SPX break under strong support in the 1800 area. Short term the best reversal signals on the SPX daily chart are from divergences on the RSI 5, and we have a bearish negative RSI 5 divergence forming there now. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Ten Green Candles
ES closed green again yesterday, delivering a second run of ten consecutive green candle closes since 2000. Looking at the overnight action I doubt that we will see a third record-equalling eleventh green candle today. At the moment ES is trying to hold 1830 and we might still see a test of the 1851 SPX high if it can hold. If 1830 breaks then the double-top target is in the 1822.50 area. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Wedges Turned Channels
Well somewhat to my surprise SPX bounced at my highest retracement target yesterday, and that was at the 50 DMA. The broken rising wedges on SPX and NDX both established rising channels at the low, and I posted the SPX channel on twitter later with the comment that there was no longer a retracement setup there unless the rising channel should break down. That remains the case this morning of course and I would add to that the note that the rising channel is rising at better than ten handles per day, so it is likely to break down within a few days at most. SPX 15min chart: (more…)
Retracement Targets
I gave the remaining significant resistance level on ES/SPX in the 1824-8 ES range yesterday and the reversal at 1823.5 was at the bottom of that range. ES has now broken down from both the rising wedge and the 50 hour MA and I’m expecting more downside, though I would add the caveat that at this stage in a rising wedge breakdown there is often a retest of broken wedge support or a test of the highs to establish the second high of a double-top. We could still see that happen here. ES 60min chart: (more…)
