Surprise, surprise. Everything is green this morning. New lifetime high on S&P 500. New lifetime high on NASDAQ. Every day except weekends, guaranteed.
The one exception is bonds. Here is what has been going on this year……..
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Can Bonds Relax?
The only red on my screen this morning (and it’s down only the tiniest bit) is bonds. This is a market I watch terribly closely, because as I’ve said through most of 2018, the core shift I’m looking for is an increase in interest rates and an accompanying decrease in real estate valuations. Through the course of the year, the now-broken trendline has done an effective job of repelling prices (arrows). At the moment, my fondest hope is that prices don’t either bother getting back to the trendline and instead turn away from that green tinted area.
Bid-a-Bing, Bid-a-Bond
As I tweeted out last night, I spent the entire weekend putting the finishing touches on my latest book, and I am tremendously proud of it. I will be telling you about it (and how to get it) here on Slope a little later this month.
Regarding the markets this morning, I was a little surprised to see (as of this writing, because there are both very close to unchanged) that NQ had flipped green and ES’s low was very small, whereas they had both been down hard when I went to bed last night. It’s not upsetting, though, because, frankly, huge Monday morning selloffs have always been greeted by ruinous government intervention. I’d much rather things be calm. It looks like a good opening for me in any case.
Even more important, my portfolio is quite interest-rate sensitive, and the weaker bonds can be, the better. We’re definitely doing good things in that respect:
I am quite short right now (267% of buying power used) across 74 positions, and there are a handful of others I plan to enter as well. This should be a very interesting week indeed!
Very Interest-ing
If we can get away from the talk of 66,000 on the Dow (eyes roll) I wanted to focus on a favorite topic of mine, which is the falling bond market:
