Check out what corporate bonds have been doing since last August:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Pandemics & Rates
The Credit Recoupling
The graph below shows the stock market (in blue, by way of the SPY) and the junk bond market (by way of JNK, although you just as easily look at SJNK, HYG, EMB, or a variety of other debt-sensitive instruments). My view is that credit will lead the way (lower) and that, sooner or later, the gravitational bull of the bonder market is going to bring equities down to levels that many people find unexpected.
Fresh Domes
I’ve made quite a fuss lately about these enormous topping patterns on interest-sensitive funds which, I strongly believe, are pointing the way for a massive equity bear market this year. Check ’em out:
MICE At the Midline
Below is an updated graph of my Most Important Chart Ever (MICE) which is the S&P 500 cash index divided by the ten-year interest rate. Quite clearly the days of ZIRP are behind us, and the one-two punch of higher interest rates and lower stock prices seems most likely in the years ahead.
