Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Breakout Candlesticks (by Springheel Jack)

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An extraordinary day across a number of markets yesterday, with the breaks through the bollinger bands on SPX and Vix looking particularly remarkable. I've been doing a bit of research this morning on similar setups in the past and they are a real rarity. On the Vix there was only one similar close in 2011 where the Vix both opened and closed under the daily bollinger bands. That was in April 2011 and it marked the 2011 low for Vix, though the 2011 high on equities was a week later. That candlestick on Vix should see a significant low there made yesterday or within the next day or two:

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Bullish Action Overnight (by Springheel Jack)

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ES held the first support level I gave yesterday morning at the 1360 level, and has broken up through the previous high overnight, holding it as support since. That was impressively bullish, though there is some negative divergence on the 60min RSI. Looking again at the IHS on ES this morning, and how it has developed since I first posted it last Thursday morning, the right shoulder formed on Thursday, it broke up on Friday, the neckline retest was yesterday and it has made it over halfway to the 1384-5 target since that retest. Obviously we may see that IHS target made very soon. Short term I have support at the previous high in the 1371.5 area, and rising support from the low last week is currently in the 1365.75 area. 

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Shaky Start Opex Week (by Springheel Jack)

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There were too many charts to cover in a single post today really so I split off the interesting USD/forex setup into a separate post yesterday that you can see here. As I mentioned there, short term USD is looking as though it may break up and EURUSD looks ready to break down, though it's worth noting that since then EURUSD has made a marginal new low on positive RSI divergence. If EURUSD breaks back above broken rising channel support we may see a decent oversold bounce. 

On equities the long setup is looking distinctly shaky short term, and it's worth remembering here that many swings start with a counter-trend spike followed by a bigger move down. On the ES 60min the high on Friday was well short of the IHS target in the 1382 area, but the 60min RSI is showing negative divergence, the initial support trendline from the low broke last night, and we have a short term lower high. I have support at 1360 and strong support at 1351.75. A break below 1351.75 would suggest a retest of last week's lows:

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Business as Usual (by Springheel Jack)

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Well we got the bounce I was looking for yesterday, but declining resistance from the high on ES was broken overnight, and that threw a small hand grenade into the short term bear case. Looking at EURUSD and NDX particularly, the overall damage to the short term bear case looks fatal, so the retracement this week has more than likely bottomed out, and it looks like we are therefore back to business/bullishness as usual. Many are switching over to the June ES contract today but I tend to wait until the volume on the June contract is higher, so I'd expect to switch tomorrow or Monday. All ES values given today are therefore still for the March contract. 

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Teddy Bears Picnic (by Springheel Jack)

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Just a short post today as I have to go out for some of the morning. Now I'm not feeling at all smug about my calls in recent weeks. This topping process has taken an age, and while SPX didn't actually get an awful lot higher after I started to think a top was close in the 1354 SPX area almost three weeks ago, the slow dribble upwards persisted quite a bit longer than I expected. Nonetheless I'm particularly pleased with this chart I posted on twitter before I went to bed last night showing the broadening descending wedge on the ES 15min and calling for a move to the lower wedge trendline if the short term rising support trendline broke:

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