Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Record CCI on FXI

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PLEASE NOTE that, quite obviously, we've had some rough technical issues the past 12 hours, but it's only because we're doing a major upgrade. I've mentioned four times in a row (but somehow people keep missing it) that comments are OFFLINE for the foreseeable future (and it's tempting, frankly, to LEAVE it that way until December 1st, considering what's about to happen). Anyway, the site is 98% functional. and we're working on this sacred Day of Rest to even get comments restored.

The ETF for Chinese stocks, FXI, has had an incredible two weeks. I don’t use indicators much but take a gander at the CCI for the entire history of FXI. It has never been higher. Ever. The last time it was anything close to this high, it immediately fell for months. This is an historic ascent.

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Weighing The Options

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In mid-September I wrote a post looking at a big inflection point on equities, and the large decline we could see from there on the pattern setup. Let’s see how that’s looking now.

There were two big nested double top setups that had formed on Dow and SPX. The first of those was on Dow and that has gone high enough since to destroy the setup. While that has happened though Dow has established a high quality rising wedge from the Oct 2023 low that is holding so far, and that has wedge support currently in the 40,000 area.

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Crypto – If Not Now, Then

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Last week I was writing about the solid short setup forming on Crypto and have been looking at it every day in my premarket videos. That setup has played out now, all the daily sell signals I was looking at on BTCUSD (Bitcoin), ETHUSD (Ethereum) and SOLUSD (Solana) formed, fixed and have now made their full targets at the 30 level on the daily RSI 5.

So what now? Well we’re seeing a rally today which I was looking for on yesterday’s premarket video, and a likely backtest of key resistance is coming. On Bitcoin that resistance is at the daily middle band, currently at 62,604. A break and conversion of that to support opens the upside.

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Nice Looking Short Setup on Crypto

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I was looking at the nice short setup on Crypto earlier this week and both BTCUSD (Bitcoin) and SOLUSD (Solana) then broke back over the very obvious resistance at the 200dma. The obvious question is whether this is a break up and possibly that might be the case, but it doesn’t look like it.

A weak RSI 5 daily sell signal has fixed on ETHUSD (Ethereum), and a full daily RSI 5 sell signal has fixed on Solana. These have a solid history of making at least the minimum target at the 35 level on the daily RSI 5.

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Equities In the Big Inflection Point

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In my post last week I was looking at the big inflection point here on equity indices, and they are still in that inflection point, though there have been some developments since which I’ll go through today.

I use the $SPXADP daily chart as one rough and ready guide to where there might be a retracement or consolidation coming on SPX, and that hit the key upside level at 30 on Friday. There are 11 previous hits of 30 on the chart below (red dotted vertical trendlines), and all of them signaled either a retracement starting within a couple of days (seven instances) and/or a sideways consolidation lasting at least two or three weeks, so it is likely that we will be looking at that again here.

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