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Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
It was a wild week for the market and a grueling one for me. Let us start by reviewing from the last post:
It wasn't long ago at all – just a few months, really – that Facebook was christened as the salvation of the Silicon Valley. Everyone wanted to work there; everybody wanted a piece of their IPO; everyone dreamed of how rich they could get if they could get just a little slice of the social media pie with their own three-person startup backed by $5 million in venture funding.
Things have changed quite a bit. With Facebook's stock now at a 50% loss (measured against its high, set within minutes of the May 18th initial public offering), it's becoming clear that just about every entity – human, corporate, and the way things are going, perhaps even extraterrestrial – that touches Facebook gets the zap put on them. Off the top of my head:
+ Zynga – whose stock is down over 80% from its own high, having attached itself to the Facebook star and the promise of Earth's population playing FarmVille for the rest of their lives;
+ NASDAQ – which is still struggling to come up with a huge payoff to the affiliated parties that lost so much money by participating in one of the highest-visibility IPOs in history;
+ Broker/Dealers – such as Knight Capital, which lost tens of millions of dollars be being involved with the completely botched IPO;
+ The Investing Public – which has lost billions and billions (best said in a Carl Sagan voice) by jumping on to the FB bandwagon;
+ Newer Facebook Employees – There is a caste system already in place in Menlo Park at the Facebook headquarters, located just a couple of miles from where I'm sitting. The brahmin are those who showed up early and have secured their billions (or hundreds of millions) by being at the right place at the right time. The untouchables are the poor slobs who came on board more recently and whose options are deeply underwater. The rich kids might decide just to take their fortunes with them; the rest of the employees will realize that they are pretty much working For Just A Salary (instead of guaranteed millions from the explosively successful FB options) and might feel a skosh resentful.
+ SecondMarket, SharesPost, and their ilk – Surely you recall how much press and attention these web sites were getting – – accredited investors got the privilege (!) of buying stock in firms like Twitter and Facebook from other individuals. I don't recall where Facebook peaked pre-IPO, but it at well over twice the current public market price.
+ Startups – Lastly, the bloom's fairly well off the rose here in the Silicon Valley with respect to social startups. After all, if the cream of the crop like Facebook has become a worldwide embarassment, what sort of appeal does yet another three-person firm of 21 year old kids have?
Of course, I think all of this is actually pretty healthy. The lunacy around Facebook was getting completely ridiculous, and now as Facebook confronts reality and recognizes that the suck part of being public is actually having accountability to shareholders, maybe they'll focus on creating products that are at once popular, useful, and very profitable. Suffice it to say that a lot of folks owning FB have decided that they're in it for the long haul at this point. They don't really have much of a choice.
Well, my fellow Slope-a-Dopes, where to from here? The blizzard rages on, that much is clear/blurry. The whiteout will arrive as the storm's violent fury reaches peak strength. The only question that remains is will it bury us alive, or will we escape certain death by borrowing Ben's 300hp QE fuel injected turbocharged snow blower to dig our way out. Will the global economy rapidly descend into a deep freeze sending all financial thermometers to sub zero Centigrade, or will the coming coordinated round of massive global Central Bank snow blowing thaw all risk assets back up to Fahrenheit 451?
As some old-time Slopers know, I've been online for a very long time. I was plugged into CompuServe back in 1981 via a 300 baud modem, and I've been participating in – and creating – online communities ever since.
I confess in my middle age-dom that I am feeling increasingly out-of-touch with the online world. Although I have a Twitter account with over 7,000 followers, it's apparent to me that I'm not really clear on how to build up a large audience in this medium, since the most completely random people have drastically more followers through some kind of magic that, I'm guessing, has something to do with how many people they're following themselves.