Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Revising the Ratio

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I did a recent post here and over on ZeroHedge which got a lot of views based on the SPY/GLD ratio. Some readers pointed out something that hadn’t occurred to me before: the ETF GLD didn’t even exist until November 2004, which means the ratio is really only valid starting on that day. (SPY, on the other hand, the first ETF, was created early in 1993).

I assumed incorrectly that ProphetCharts would only begin charting a ratio at the most recent start day for any symbol used. I assumed wrong. This would normally be excusable were it for not one inconvenient truth:

0720-bytim

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Trade Shows of Yesteryear

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A few days ago, a former employee of mine from back in the days of Prophet, and now a friend/business associate, emailed me to ask if I’d be heading up to San Francisco for the Money Show. He lives in San Francisco, and Palo Alto is about a forty minute drive from there, so he thought that, if I was going, it would be a good opportunity to get together.

I hadn’t really planned on going. Back when I was building Prophet, particularly in the late 1990s, financial trade shows were actually pretty fun. In fact, during the Internet boom, they were amazing, because there was a bustle of activity, and there would be hundreds of booths with the latest trading, charting, and portfolio technologies.

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A Ratio Worth Respecting

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Two months ago, I did a piece called A Fascinating Ratio, which suggested that a major reversal was coming once the ratio reached about 2.0. At the time I did the post in mid-May, the ratio was a little under 1.8, but thanks to the unflagging strength of equities, as well as the unwavering suckiness of precious metals, this ratio is up to 1.95. We’re getting very, very close to what I think will be a major pivot point, and perhaps the pairs trade opportunity of the decade:

0717-SPYGLD

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Ciao!

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Most of you have probably gathered I’m not big on vacations. If I had committed some ghastly crime and was sentenced to spend the rest of eternity working from home, forbidden to leave the town limits of Palo Alto, I actually would have no problem with that. Indeed, I’d like to know the crime in question, just so I can enjoy committing it and then bask in the glow of a supposedly Draconian sentence.

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The Air We Breathe

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A few years ago, I was chatting with an acquaintance of mine who happens to be pretty rich. I don’t know the exact figure, but his net worth was probably something like $80 million. He was definitely in “ultra-high net worth” territory and quite obviously never needed to work another day in his life.

He was bemoaning the fact that if he hadn’t sold his energy company so early, he would be “a billionaire by now.” My heart didn’t exactly ache for the guy, but his complaint (which these days I think is referred to as a “humblebrag“) made an impression.

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