Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Charts of Market DOOM

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(Note from Tim: just about the only person I’m in contact with throughout any given trading day is Northman Trader, who was kind enough to share the post below. Click on any of the images for a big version. I’d like to add that Northman tends to be much more evenly-balanced than I am, and he isn’t running around beating the bear drum constantly like me, so take that into account when reading this:)

We’ve been bullish from a trading perspective this week and it has worked out great, but we are chartists and what we are seeing is concerning. We’ve talked about structural macro charts for a while and they have teased us along the way with magic saves month after month. But since they are monthly and quarterly charts one has to recognize that the math is straightforward and its clinical results are showing one startling conclusion for bulls: Utter Doom.

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The Model X Debut

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Early in 2013, I did a laudatory review of the Tesla Model S (at which time, if I had any sense, I would have loaded up on the then-$40 stock), and I continue to believe it is the best car I’ve ever had. Around the same time, I put $5,000 down to reserve my spot for the Tesla X SUV. This product has been delayed for a long, long time, but Elon Musk promised it would start shipping in “Q3 2015”. I cynically predicted he’d probably roll out one vehicle on September 30th, and I wasn’t too far off: he rolled it out the day before. That is, last night.

I got an invitation to the event, which was held at the Tesla Factory. It’s been many, many years since I’ve been to anything resembling a product intro, so I decided to go. I drove over the Dumbarton Bridge to Fremont, and I joined a fairly large crowd of other people who had also received invitations.

0930-tesla1

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The IFD Trap

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I wanted to share some thoughts on a topic not directly related to trading. I don’t want to take credit for something I didn’t conjure up, since the late Dr. Wayne Dyer originally put the thought in my head, but it has been a persistent notion for me that I would like to share. It’s called the IFD syndrome.

Dyer described it as “the psychology of tomorrow”, and in my experience, it’s something a lot of people practice. Let’s face it, life isn’t easy, and a lot of people need something to look forward to in order to get through each day. I’ve heard it from friends all my life: about a forthcoming vacation, or a prospective promotion, or maybe a new car they’re expecting (that never seems to materialize). “I need something to look forward to.”

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Exodus 8:2

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We may be through with the past, but the past isn’t through with us.

I’m a big fan of history, and although I’m not a trained historian, I wrote a book about history through the lens of financial markets called Panic, Prosperity, and Progress (which has 22 reviews on Amazon, averaging 4.9 out of 5 stars………..so it can’t be that terrible). As part of this, I enjoy thinking of the arcs of history, particularly financial history, and anticipating where we might be going. This post is just such an exercise.

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