Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Without You

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I’ve been online, in one way or another, since about 1982 when I got my first 300 baud Lynx modem. During the many years since, I have acquired what I think is a pretty strong sense as to the rhythm, timbre, and pulse of a given online community. In many ways I’m more comfortable with an online group than with a live group of people.

If I chose to do so, I could spend a lot more time in Slope’s own comments section. I could make a lot of comments on my own, try to guide the conversation, gently scold people whose behavior seemed to be getting a bit out of line, and so forth. I do not spend much time in comments, however, for many reasons. Broadly stated, I’m really busy, and let’s face it, with Slope in its 12th year, I would hope that the community could, by and large, manage itself.

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Looking at the RUT Triangle

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The short term patterns on SPX, NDX and RUT from Tuesday’s Yellen spike broke down and are forming likely bull flags here. I’m expecting to see those go a bit lower today before breaking up to at least test yesterday’s highs. They may reverse at that retest. The ES chart looks supportive of that scenario, though I’m struggling to find another chart to back that up. ES Jun 60min chart (from last night):

160330C ES Jun 60min

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My New Favorite Indicator

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Many of you know that, for quite a long time, I had a childish tantrum against fellow blogger Northman since, long ago, he managed to hurt my feelings (which, experience has shown, is easier to do than shooting fish in a barrel; I’m a sensitive soul). We buried the hatchet a while ago, and we’ve been having a torrid bromance ever since, staying in constant touch with each other.

Naturally, we’ve been weeping on each other’s shoulders lately, being disappointed time and again at the market’s machinations. Today, when we yet again were being enticed with a red number on the ES, Northy boldly declared to me:

0323-northy

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Three Months. Three Mistakes.

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“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Slope has, over its nearly eleven year history, garnered a reputation for honesty. I make every effort to be completely forthcoming with my thoughts about trading, even when it’s going lousy for me, as it has over the past four weeks. I think this is more helpful than trying to “spin” things as many other analysts do, making it seem like they’ve never made a single misstep. This is going to be one of those “dangeorusly honest” posts, because 2016 has been a disappointment to me so far, even though it needn’t have been so.

Although there have been hundreds of “moments”, both good and bad, so far this year, I thought it best to break down my analysis into three simple chunks, each of which represent a core error on my part. I hope that in doing so, not only can I help myself think through where I went wrong, but I may also be able to assuage some of the pain others may be experiencing who have gone through something similar. I’ve marked these “events” on the chart shown here, with the tinted areas from left to right marking each of these three zones.

0312-spx

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