Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
See The Fine Ukulele
Several months ago, I wrote what turned out to be one of the most important posts of the year: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which laid out four possible directions (out of infinite possibilities) for the stock market. Happily, my most bearish prediction, “Delta”, turned out to be the case (although things went much, much lower than I dared imagine).
I’d like to go out on a limb again with a similar post, presenting four possible paths. Instead of Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, I hereby offer to you beloved readers the four possible paths of Sierra, Tango, Foxtrot, and Uniform.
(more…)China Rejoinder (by Binkius Hippo)
Hi, Tim: You recently posted an email, “A Response to China Deal” and the article is so misleading and paints such a false narrative that I have to wonder if it’s a Communist Party cyber-ops fake news attempt to obfuscate the truth. If you could post my rebuttal, I would appreciate it.
Let me start with this introductory pre-amble. The single largest problem with business in China is not the negotiations, not the contracts, nor the law. Very simply, what matters in the end is if the terms of the agreement are Verifiable and Enforceable. It doesn’t matter what you agree to, what you sign, or what the law is in China. What matters is if the deal you have made is Verifiable and Enforceable. If you can’t get this, all you got are seashells.
(more…)The China Deal (by Binkius Hippo)
Preface from Tim: as with the prior post from Binkius, this was not originally submitted as a post. Instead, it was a personal email to me. But, as before, Binkius has kindly granted me permission to reprint it here as a post. I frankly find his insights more insightful than anything else I’ve read about the US/China trade dealings, and I’m grateful to him for his continued unique perspective.
The infamous Roman emperor Caligula rashly decided that he could invade Britain. When the Roman legions stood on the shores of the English channel the Roman generals realized that the mad emperor could not put together a coherent logistical/economic plan to get the troops across. Eventually, Caligula lost interest in his folly and told his troops to collect seashells to bring back to Rome for a triumphal procession of his great military prowess.
(more…)Trillionaire
This is a tale of how greed and lack of risk management can blow up in a big way. Brace yourselves.
Allow me to introduce you to one Matt Todorovski, a resident of Australia who wanted to become a trillionaire – – yes, a trillionaire – – by sitting in front of his computer trading the FOREX markets.
Now there is absolutely nothing wrong with being ambitious, setting goals, and trying to beat the markets. Millions of people around the world do it, and the vast majority of them fail. It’s a tough business. That’s why the handful of winners make so much money. Because almost everyone else loses.
(more…)