Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Trading Tax Gains Momenum

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OCTOBER 12, 2009
 
Democrats Weigh Tax On Financial Transactions By JOHN D. MCKINNON (WSJ) WASHINGTON -- Taxing financial transactions on Wall Street is gathering support
in high places. 

With federal budget deficits soaring, policy makers and other advocates are
eyeing the huge sums that could be raised as a way to cover the costs of new
initiatives.
Labor unions, in particular the AFL-CIO, have proposed a financial-transactions
tax as a way to defray costs of a health-care overhaul. 

Lawmakers have discussed
a similar fee as a way to cover the cost of future financial oversight. Liberal
advocates are pushing the tax to pay for new stimulus spending.
This week, the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute floated the idea of a
national transaction tax that would raise $100 billion to $150 billion a year.
The tax, at a rate of 0.1% to 0.25% of the value of the trade, would be levied
on all financial transactions such as stock trades, but not on consumer
transactions such as with credit cards. 

The money would be used initially to pay for temporary aid to states, hiring
incentives for public- and private-sector employers and school construction
money.
"We are in a difficult time right now, so people are looking at every
opportunity to
gain some revenue to fund" new initiatives, said Rep. Stephen
Lynch (D., Mass.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee. "Because
I was one of the first to suggest using this to fund [new] regulatory
infrastructure, folks have come to me and said, 'That's a good idea; I've got a
better one: Why don't we use it for stimulus or especially health care?'" 

One Democratic aide said the idea is under consideration among House leadership,
though the discussions are preliminary.
A spokeswoman for Republican House leader John Boehner of Ohio criticized the
idea. "How is killing more American jobs by stifling capital investment, further
eroding families' savings and diverting much-needed investment out of the United
States a good idea during a severe economic downturn?" said the spokeswoman,
Antonia Ferrier. 

Unnoticed by many, the concept already has found its way into federal law. At
the urging of House Democratic leaders, last year's $700 billion
financial-bailout bill contains a provision requiring the president to submit
legislation to "recoup" from the financial-services industry any eventual
shortfall in the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
The provision, inserted during last-minute negotiations, was encouraged by
moderate Democrats who worried that taxpayers would be left footing the bill if
the government investment produced big losses.
Transactions taxes first were proposed in the 1970s for currency trading, to
reduce v
olatility in exchange rates. 

The idea later was seized on as a way to
reduce volatility in financial systems.
In an interview Friday, Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial
Services Committee, said he supported the legislation's idea of recouping future
losses from the industry.
"I was one of the ones who suggested" the idea for the TARP provision, said the
Massachusetts Democrat. He said he didn't specifically propose a
financial-transactions tax. The provision could be structured as either a tax or
a fee, he said, and could be a one-time provision rather than a permanent tax.
That would make it less likely that parties to financial transactions would seek
to escape the tax by moving activity to another country. He said imposing such a
tax "country by country...would be a problem."
Many economists have argued against a financial-transactions tax on policy
grounds, saying it could have consequences for markets, in part by driving
activity outside the U.S. Critics said it also would throw sand in the gears of
capital markets. 

Still, some appear to be changing their minds. "I'm not as hostile as I used to
be," said Len Burman, a Syracuse University professor and former head of the Tax
Policy Center, a venture of the left-of-center Brookings Institution and Urban
Institute. Curbing frequent trading might be a good idea, he said, though he is
"skeptical this is the best way to do it."
Mr. Frank s
aid additional fees might be imposed on financial-industry
participants such as payday lenders in order to pay for a consumer-protection
agency.
Fees to pay for regulatory activities aren't considered a tax under House rules.
The new fees would be relatively minor, he said, adding that details haven't
been worked out. Similar fees already help pay for the operations of some
agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

A broader question is whether levies on the financial industry might be used to
help establish a rescue fund for future calamities.
In response to a question at a House hearing in September, White House economic
adviser and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said it "might be
interesting" if Congress ordered a study of the idea of a transactions tax. But
he pointed to the problem of driving transactions to other countries. "That's
the No. 1 problem; you'll have to get some consistency internationally," he
said. 

Trade unions are backing the idea to reduce government deficits and pay for new
jobs initiatives, among other purposes. Amid their urging, the Group of 20
industrial and developing nations recently pushed the International Monetary
Fund to study the idea, which has drawn endorsements from some leaders in the
U.K. and Germany. 

What Money Can’t Buy

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I keep reading in various blogs and newsletters how any weakness in the market will be answered by Uncle Ben and his Printing Press. In other words, now that the government has proved it can simply pour Monopoly money into the marketplace by way of Goldman Sachs and prop up the markets, it will just keep doing so in perpetuity. No more bear markets – ever!

There is one thing about which I am certain in this very uncertain world in which we live: at some point, this little game of creating trillions of dollars for the sole purpose of creating an artificial demand for financial instruments is going to fail. It might not fail tomorrow It might not fail next month. But one day, it will fail. And when it does fail, the Dot-Gov bubble is going to make the Dot-Com bubble and the Housing bubble look like pathetic jokes in comparison.

The reason capitalism – real capitalism – not fraud and artifice – has always appealed to me is because it most closely resembled the natural order of things; that is: the truth. And I've got a familiarity with the truth that some people find disquieting. I'm kind of a big fan of it.

And truthful capitalism is about things like quality products, satisfied customers, an inspired and creative workforce, and earnings growth. It is also, in turn, about a mindful board of directors, a satisfied (and yet vigilant) body of shareholders and an earnest track record of truthful accountancy and reporting.

I'm not interested in shorting AAPL or GOOG, not only because their charts simply aren't that opportune (even in the face of a severe leg down), but also because, by and large, these companies represent capitalism at its best. That's also probably why they charts don't look like good shorts.

But what's going on now with the market in general – superb companies like the above notwithstanding – is fakery. If you've got a dead tree………but you hire someone to spray paint the leaves green and trim off some of the more obvious diseased branches………you're going to convince most people for a given period of time that the tree is OK. But you've still got a dead tree. And one day when a storm blows the whole thing over, people are going to realize you've been lying to them for however long the charade has been going on.

My point is that government money, funneled through Goldman Sachs, can – and has – created artificial demand for equities that have sent them soaring. The government's printing presses are big enough to "buy" the market. But even the government can't fake widespread corporate prosperity, and for that reason, sooner or later, this game is going to reach its ugly conclusion.

And So It Begins…….

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Well, this is happening sooner than I thought.

Today I received this letter from the completely lame, insanely-high-commissions brokerage that my employer uses to administer our 401-k program. Click on the link to read it; I don't want to gobble up space and bandwidth by posting it directly.

On my Big Picture page, I recently added this……

I will add that a major concern I have is that our government, which has become quite accustomed to extreme interference with the markets, will step in to "rescue" everyone during the resumption of the tumble. As a person who hopes to profit handsomely from the downturn, my concern is that the government is going to specifically target the bears in a show of populist activism.

So here we have the SEC suspending the use of leveraged and any inverse ETFs at major brokerages. It's starting with the 401-ks, but how long do you think it'll be before more "help" is on the way?

So where does this leave me, then? Well, I've got $375,000 in this account, and nothing to do with it. So – mission accomplished, SEC – there's $375,000 in buying power that wants to buy ultrashort ETFs that has been neutered. Multiply that by tens of millions of accounts, and you've taken a lot of selling pressure off the market!

You've also created a situation where people will be helpless to sustain the value in their accounts, because their choices will be (a) cash; or (b) bullish equity positions.

Jerks.

Nation Speak with Forked Tongue

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My view of any authoritarian institution – be it a church, a government, or a person's office – is driven by how it regards the individual (more specifically – how it regards me). There seems to be a continuum by which another body might judge a person, ranging on one side as "child" and on another as "responsible adult."

When I was in my early 20s, I was a dedicated Libertarian because I felt that the government should view people as responsible adults. That was naive of me, I now realize, because a lot of adults aren't the least bit responsible. They want (or need) to be treated as children. Some of this comes from their nature; some of its comes from the way the government trains them to behave.

I find being treated as a child by an authoritarian figure to be undignified, which is why I bristle at most of them. The reason I'm thinking of this on this morning is because I was engaged in an email exchange with an individual I respect quite a bit about the Goldman Sachs report referenced in yesterday's comments section.

Even though Slopers are understandably cynical about Goldman Sachs, it's still interesting how GS's public face is part of the "green shoots" club, but their reports created for their own clients paints a picture of doom 'n' gloom that would find itself quite at-home here on Slope. My friend wrote to me, in part:

What’s
fascinating to me is the two-tier information flow—the flow that I see from
private equity, venture capital and high net worth money managers VERSUS what
the media (led by CNBC) outlets are telling investors.  As with this GS report,
all of my “insider” talks have essentially the same bearish/troubled data and
all of the public, media-generated stories (of course led by the President and
Washington “insiders”) are doublespeak and misleading spin.

I couldn't have said it better myself! Because everyone, from Obama on down, is going to treat the American public as children that need to be fed graham crackers, patted on the head, and told that the boo-boo is going to be made all better. A little Bernanke Bactine is all you need!

Whereas the elite – – those with money, those in the know (and those with the good sense to read quality blogs……..) – – will be told the truth. And it will set you free.