Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Read This Before Paying Your Taxes

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{Preamble: I am going to be driving for many hours, heading home, so I wanted to put this post up for prime-time viewing. I'll be back in the saddle late tonight with a comment-cleaner. Godspeed………}

I urge you to read the latest by Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone. Read the whole article about how two wives of rich Wall Street executives got over $220 million in risk-free, non-recourse "loans" from you and me – – the hapless, pathetic taxpayers – – to do with whatever they please. It's this kind of bullsh*t that has funded this entire rally. And I will celebrate with my fellow Slopers when this entire charade collapses in a burning heap.

When I write my checks to the IRS and the State of California, I will keep in mind the truth……..

+ The money is going to completely go to waste;

+ The governments being funded are not going to survive; 

+ Social Security and Medicare are a cruel joke; I'll never benefit from these programs one iota;

+ No government has ever done me one bit of good; the millions I've given these clowns has gone one direction – away from me – and I will never benefit. It's just cash that's been thrown away. Yeah, yeah, taxes are what you pay to live in a society. I'd be happy to pay a flat, universal, 10% tax to provide the required services. That's all it would take to keep a well-run country humming.

People pay taxes today for one reason and one reason only: because they fear the government and its power to punish. So the relationship is entirely adversarial. Were it not for that, no one would pay.

So I'm sure you'll enjoy throwing your cash away every bit as much as I do. Read the article. Please! It'll piss you off, but at least it's the truth. To ignore such information is a willful act of ignorance.

As for Obama and his change you could believe it – – what a crock of crap. He's a wimp, pure and simple. Limpy, wimpy, and with respect to backbone, far too skimpy.

My hope for the future of this once-great nation of ours…….pray for rain.

0412-piggies

Food Inflation- More Than Meets the Eye (by BKudla)

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As the mainstream public and media starts grasping the significance of rising food prices around  the world, their focus, and the focus of most people is on how terrible it is for poor people or for poor countries, but this is problem is more insidious, and damaging for our economy.

Taking a step back, one of the goals of the Fed is to force velocity of money by raising prices, especially necessities, thus creating the whirlwind of economic activity that can be taxed and diverted to the bankers.  In their mind they solve two problems in one for themselves, and cause some inconvenience along the way for masses.

But we are not in a demand push inflation, but a cost push variety with no increase in domestic income, but more importantly, they are neglecting Maslows laws of well being; specifically when people start to worry about food security and in our case ability to pay for food, a multiplier effect takes hold; in the wrong direction.  People shut down when pursuing safety.

In my view food, and for purpose of this post, is non prepared grocery food, and it is low margin and low velocity.  As prices in the market go up, and wages do not, the first effect is rolling down from restaurant eating, then the high margin prepared foods in the market are target-ted.  This brings us to today, going forward the next roll down is from discretionary food items, and label brands to basics and store brands.

Now it gets interesting, as food and fuel push up from here, the next area is distretionary other spending, which rips into the heart of our service economy, margin squeezes on everything not essential will happen first, then these businesses will simply give up and close. 

My point is as people focus on basics, and worrying about the future cost of said basics, they are less likely to have the animal spirits to create the velocity the FED desires, buying food instead of something else is not simply a one for one substitution of expense in the family budget, and replacing high margin spending with low margin ones, does not drive us out of this ditch, it perpetuates it.

It is ironic to me that every business in this country either becomes a non profit or extinct, so the bankers can be made whole.  Where is the CEO outcry?

Time Saver

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In the interest of saving Slopers' valuable time – always a priority here – allow me to spare you investing your minutes in a couple of big events taking place over the next twenty-four hours. Below are what you will hear, in summary form:

State of the Union Address: "Since I took over, things have improved a lot, but they could improve even more if you back me on my legislative agenda. (thunderous applause)"

Statement of the Federal Reserve: "The economy is getting better, but it could improve even more, so we're going to continue pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the markets as long as we need to do so, and we're going to keep an eye on things to figure out if there are more hundreds of billions of dollars needed. There was no dissent."

You're welcome.

We Get It

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Yesterday, one of the regulars here on Slope expressed puzzlement and my frequent mentions of "the evils" out there, such as Bernanke, Geithner, POMO, and so forth. He politely stated that the focus should be on the charts, and that the reason behind the price movement was really neither here nor there. He quickly got a lot of "Likes" on his comment, and I realized he had struck a chord. There was so much chatter about his comment that he wound up deleting it, but I felt it was something I should address.

I've made a habit of writing whatever is on my mind (within reason; I don't want to alienate everyone by being too candid about my feelings) here on Slope. It bugs me……..a lot……..that my beloved free enterprise system has been corrupted on an unprecedented scale, so I've been quite vocal – perhaps to the point of nettlesome – about these persons and actions.

Let us use the metaphor of an airplane pilot. I have been trained, let us suppose, as a pilot. I've got years of experience, volumes of knowledge, and a specific objective (which is to get the plane safely to my destination). I have been able to do this for years. However, one day, some people begin putting Vaseline on my windshield. This ground crew – – Geithner and Blankfein – – smear their POMO sauce all over my windshield so that things are difficult to see.

What used to work doesn't work anymore. Things don't make sense. I can't ascertain what's coming up next. Other pilots, whose windshields are similarly smeared, tell me to just keep flying, and that everything will be fine. Just fly, and don't worry about it. But I can't; it's uncomfortable, unsettling, and bothersome. So I complain about the Vaseline. And I keep complaining.

So it is with the markets today. The easiest thing to do is fly (buy) and keep flying (keep buying). It's worked out for plenty of folks. But it seems insane to me (as examples like FFIV are beginning to show us). I'm not a momentum trader. I don't play "Greater Fool" markets. That costs me sometimes, since insanity like 1999 (and 2009/2010) happen. But pushing my plane full-throttle forward, Vaseline be damned, just isn't the way I'm put together. Maybe that makes me a fool, but at least I'm a fool with integrity.

But I understand the Sloper's point about my all-too-frequent complaints about Vaseline. I'll lighten up about it, since I've made my point. You guys know how I feel. I'll try to refrain from mentioning the Evils anymore – – or at least do so infrequently – – since I understand repeating what I've said doesn't really add anything to the discussion. And that's all I've got to say about that.

0120-picard

Gubmint Knows Best

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My lifelong relationship with government has been a simple one: I have paid them ("them" being the US Government, the State of California, the County of Santa Clara, and the City of Palo Alto) millions of dollars in taxes and fees and have given up a certain amount of civil liberties, and in exchange I have received………almost nothing.

Yes, I get to drive on roads, and I suppose on an per-user basis that's probably worth a couple of thousand dollars to me. And I enjoy clean drinking water, which I'd be willing to pay for anyway. And I live in a society governed, to varying degrees, by the rule of law. But, on the whole, I'd say I've received about ten cents of value for every dollar (and I'm in a generous mood).

I bring this up because of an article I just read about how the government's newest food safety law also provides for the banning of school bake sales. Now, it doesn't ban them outright, but it provides for that kind of power.

Commenting on the new law, Michelle Obama (whose official role is………what?) declared, regarding child nutrition, "we can't just leave it up to the parents."

Of course not. I mean, I'm a father, and smarter than the average bear, but God knows I need Michelle Obama to figure out what my kids eat.

I've always viewed political parties as being along a continuum. On one extreme, Communism, the view is that people are hapless morons and need a paternalistic government to shepherd them from cradle to grave in a life devoid of meaning or self-actualization. On the other extreme is Libertarianism, which leaves it to individuals to figure their own lives out, and if they can't fend for themselves – – well, tough tacos.

I used to be a pretty hard-core Libertarian until I realized that a lot of people actually are hapless morons and need adult supervision, so my views have mellowed somewhat over the years.

All the same, this kind of pronouncement from Michelle "her arms are so toned!" Obama is the kind of thing which makes me inch back to my Libertarian leanings. Stay out of my kitchen, Obama mama. My family can handle things on its own without your help.

1214-bakesales