Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
One gauge of market sentiment that I look at from time to time is my chart grid of Foreign ETFs, showing the daily ATR on each ETF (the white histogram at the bottom of each ETF)…an extreme high ATR can often signal capitulation and a reversal of recent general trend.
From the chartgrid below, we’re not seeing that extreme, yet. In my opinion, we could very well see further downside on these ETFs, in general, for awhile longer.
At 7:45 am ET on Thursday, December 3rd, markets will know what the ECB will do with its interest rates until its next meeting in 2016. Mario Draghi will give a press conference at 8:30 am ET to explain the details.
Based on the Year-to-Date graph below, which shows how Europe’s Major Indices have fared compared with U.S. Major Indices in 2015, I’d wonder why the ECB would think that it has to pour on more QE stimulus, as many media pundits are predicting…we’ll see what happens.
Further to my post of November 17th, a bounce next (at the 40 MA…3433) and sustained rally to new highs, thereafter, is critical for China’s Shanghai Index.
Otherwise, a break and hold below the 40 MA will signal that the bearish scenario (that I outlined in the above post) is imminent, in my opinion…all three indicators on the Daily chart below of SSEC now display “SELL” signals.
Every trading day, Portfolio Armor ranks all of the hedgeable stocks, ETFs, and other exchange-traded products in the U.S. by its estimate of their potential return over the next six months, based on an analysis of price history and option market sentiment. Then it subtracts hedging costs, and ranks them all by potential return net of hedging costs, or net potential return. It’s a method of security selection we backtested 25,412 times over an 11-year time period during which it generated solid returns, on average.
On Thursday, the highest-ranked ETF, and the 7th-ranked security overall, was the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares ETF (YANG), a triple-levered bet against China, with a potential return of 13.6% over the next six months.
As of Thursday’s close, you had a shot of capturing that potential return, while limiting your downside risk to 13.6% – and getting paid to hedge – by using the optimal collar below: (more…)
