Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

SPX DAILY Probability Analysis

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Hello everyone — after a bit of a hiatus, I’m back. I’ve been busy behind the scenes building a few new tools that I hope you’ll find useful in your trading.

Below is a small table showcasing three markets I’m currently analyzing using a DAILY model. I also track other markets using a WEEKLY model. The choice of timeframe isn’t random — it’s driven by options expiry cycles. Since these models are designed to work hand-in-hand with options trading, I align the model’s frequency with the available expiries. For example, SPX has daily expirations, so it gets a DAILY model. Stock ABC, on the other hand, might only have weekly expiries — so it gets a WEEKLY model. Simple logic.

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A New Angle with PCRs

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I read an article from our friends in Gainesville that gave me an idea to share. What the boys at EWI do is take the put/call ratio (which we now have in SlopeCharts) and do two things to it: (1) they create a 10-day moving average to smooth it out (2) they invert the scale so that a chart basing and curling up indicates a bottoming market overall, and a chart topping and starting to curl down means just the opposite.

I have made these modifications, and hidden the raw data used to compute it, in the five charts below. Enjoy!

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