Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Wisdom of Slopers

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In last night's post, I wrote:

One thing you can count on: at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday, things are going to get very interesting! I already know, for me, it's either going to be a very good day or a very bad day. I am pretty sure that I'm going to go long the /ES in a big way before the announcement because I *cannot* be totally short and have a surprise. But I think I'm going to hold off until shortly before the announcement. Any thoughts and opinions on that tactic?

Well, people generally thought it was a bad idea, and for that I am grateful! TwoJacks wrote:

I'm expecting Fed-day like activity immediately surrounding the jobs number, so the key for me will be not touching the dials until things settle down. I don't think we'll collapse and I don't think we'll crash on the number. Somehow, I think a bigger move would've already happened. Too many insiders know the number already for price to be this quiet. I'm leaning toward the idea that it's a non-event.

And blues wrote:

Well, " going to go long the /ES in a big way before the announcement because", I'm not sure if that such a good idea… Often right after the job report, the 1 minute candle can get really crazy and fast (like this morning's job report, it drop like almost 4 points in the first 1 minute candle). So what happen if first candle go down like 3-4 points right away, are you going to get scare into selling it? If not, when ARE you going to sell it? Now if it goes down 3-4 points and BOUNCE BACK right away, but you got scare into selling it first, then what you going to do? buy it back? I've tried that tactic before, is useless, it may just scare you into the wrong direction and waste of money. 

Sound advice! These Slopers are a smart bunch!

SIDE NOTE: Comments problems resolved. THANK YOU DANIEL!

Professional’s Input on Natural Gas

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I read your blog almost every day and enjoy the insight.  I trade a little bit (when I have some time), and follow some of your Slopers recommendations and strategies.  I have posted a couple of times recently.

I read your post recently on Natural Gas, and thought I would send you a note....{professional information removed at author's request}…..  

I wanted to point out that UNG is not the best way to play the eventual price rebound.  There is some serious contango in the market (so much so that the current price of $2.73 for Oct is just under 60% of the Dec contract at $4.69).   Prior to current month expiry, the UNG ETF “rolls” the contract to the next month.  When this roll takes place, they sell the current month at say $2.73 and buy the next month at $3.89 (current price of Nov).  When they do this the price of UNG does not change as it ends up buying a higher priced contract for which to trade around (they try and match the percentages of the change in price).  Effectively, your cost base gets eaten away by the contango and you lose out on the current contract price.  The only way it makes sense to buy an ETF like this is when there is backwardation in the market of the underlying commodity.

Further, the better way to play this would be to look at HNU in Canada, which is 2X the daily change in nat gas.  The benefit here is that you get the exchange rate change in a falling market, but the underlying ETF still works off the percentage change of NYMEX Natural Gas.  Still has the same contango issue.

Thought-Provoking Email from Reader

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I am republishing it here with his permission.

There is no such thing as value in the markets. If that's true then you
are doomed to fail in epic events because you are relying on the lack of value to dictate a top in the markets.

As
soon as you accept the markets stand for nothing real, other than a few
mind numbing obvious purchases like coke and pepsi you
will have more success.

If
the markets were working properly then stocks would move very slowly
except in epic failure or rare upside surprises. The real idea of the market
is using public funding to allow a good idea to grow. Once the idea
grows the company has an obligation to pay back its public
investors dividends. If the market really worked this way most stocks would climb and fall incredibly slow.

Since
it does not and most companies exist on an illusion of candyland debt
it is not the job of the market player to rely on research and
statistics, including technical analysis which relies heavily on the
assumption of value. If there were no perceived value there would be no studied patterns.

Once
you accept the lack of value and come to terms with a market empty of
investments you realize quite simply you are involved in a shell
game. Humans have played games since they started using tools. It is
normal. The only way to play this game is to bet on illusion and the emotional
hopes people place in those illusions. Market players want one of two
things. To be rich or to be famous. Those are powerful desires
in a finite life.

Betting
on the illusions that power those dreams is the key to success. Whether
or not the perceived illusion has real value doesn't matter.

The market is ruled by emotional child like gods that will do anything
to maintain or increase power. All you have to do is read greek myths to
understand how the market works and whom is behind its larger destiny.
That's why relying on the essence of a rule set like TA is a false
religion.
There is no one true god of the market, only childish multi gods making irrational decisions.

The
last issue compounding the difficulty in being an independent market
player is inside action. There is no stock that escapes buying by people
with illegal knowledge. This means you and I as independent players
have to rely heavily on luck, hope and intuition. Therefore out biggest
job as successful
marketeers is money management. We have to make sure our plays are
consistent and never heavily weighted to any particular side.

The hunt is for out performers that break all rule sets and exist
as special anomaly. Luckily I continue to hunt well, catching squirrels
while leaving the mammoth alone.

hope it all goes well,

– Oulous

Warm and Fuzzies

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Over the years, I've received many hundreds of emails from readers, 99.9% of them friendly and positive – – I got one on Sunday that stands out as particularly nice, and I'd like to share it with you (the sender provided his permission):

Hi Tim,

I hope you are enjoying your "vacation away from slope"
this week. I've never been one for waterskiing, but I am so glad you
are willing to give it a try again.

I just wanted to say thank
you to you and all the Slopers for everything that you have done for me
over the last few months. I was laid off in March (on the chopping
block and bored since January) and new to trading at the time.

Since January, I have found a new "job" here at Slope. I went full time the day I got laid off.

First,
I can't begin to tell you how much I have learned from the Slope. I am
a better trader as a result of all that I have learned here. Period.
Stochastics, chart patterns, option pricing…the list goes on and on.

More importantly, however, has been the community. Sitting at home
alone, all day, applying on line for jobs is really lonely and
discouraging. But with the community on Slope I felt like I had some
one to share the glorious ride down in March, the ridiculous upswing,
and painful tape since. Some of the hardest things about losing a job
are losing a sense of purpose and community, and I found both of them
here on Slope.

I write this to you today because it is my last day before starting
my new full time job at the American Red Cross. I am very excited about
the opportunity, but will miss cavorting all day with everybody on
slope. I'll stop by now and again, but just wanted to say thank you.

All the Best,
Sanjay Purohit (Butterstick)


Thanks, Sanjay! I agree that we've got a terrific community here.

Below is my victorious water skiing on Sunday, against all odds (or at least in direct confrontation of my fears of icy-cold water and general ineptness). Believe me, taking one hand off the tow was an act of faith.

0628-ski

“End” is an anagram of “Ned”

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I have good news for fellow Slopers. Allow me to introduce the Cetin Hekimoglu Elimination Squad:

0608-dozen

These highly-trained mercenaries have one purpose and one purpose only: to root out and summarily execute any postings on Slope that they see from Ned "Cetin the Cretin", who pollutes blogs all around this great land of ours.

I have empowered enough Slopers (whom I've already privately emailed) with the ability to nuke this creep's posts that the lifespan of such posts has been reduced to the length of time you would want a tongue-kiss from AJC.

Ned, your already pointless existence here has been reduced to utter meaninglessness. Go find somewhere else to pollute. You are going to find your efforts profoundly frustrated from here on.