Looking at ES the retracement from the high on Monday is most likely still ongoing, though there is clear positive divergence on the 60min RSI warning that it may not go much lower. The reversal at the 50 hour MA overnight kept ES on the bear side of the MA, and if the retracement continues today the obvious target is the weekly pivot at 1796.20, which should be strong support as the daily middle bollinger bands on both ES and SPX are in the same area. I have the retracement pattern as a 70% bullish (ultimately) falling wedge and I have wedge resistance just over 1805. The main bull/bear line for today is at 1808 as that was the overnight high. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
No Firm Direction Yet
Yesterday was a tedious day that didn’t go far or decide anything. I’m still leaning bullish but short term ES is retracing after established negative 60min RSI divergence yesterday. I have a small double-top target at 1801.5 and have key support around the weekly pivot at 1796.20. This is the level below which the bear case will start to look interesting again. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Another Inflection Point
SPX tested the daily middle bollinger band hard yesterday but closed above it. My main target support level is at the daily lower bollinger band and to make that is going to require a close below the middle bollinger band, ideally this week but possibly as late as next Monday. Meanwhile this area is an important inflection point and I have both bull and bear scenarios in play here. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Hitting Inflection Points on SPX and Oil
SPX reversed hard after breaking 1800 yesterday and it seems that high may have already hit the trendlines I was looking at as strong resistance in the 1805-15 range. SPX could go a little higher within those trendlines, but not much. (more…)
Rubber Bands
ES and SPX bounced very strongly off the daily middle bollinger bands yesterday morning and SPX closed back at the daily upper bollinger band. Kudos to my trading room bud Mike Vacchi of Princeton Trader for predicting the exact low on ES in the premarket to within a tick (at the ES daily middle bollinger band) and going long at 1754.5 (to my channel based entry at 1756.5). I hope some of you saw me tweet the bullish falling megaphone on ES before it broke up, and later tweet the likely close area before the last move up. We had a VERY nice day. (more…)
