The SPX daily bollinger bands have narrowed considerably over the last few weeks, until yesterday morning there were less than thirty points between the upper and lower bands. This compression is a pinch, and these pinches will generally resolve into a move one way or the other that will ride the upper or lower band for several days. If the larger double-top on SPX breaks down today then that should play out to the downside. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
A Case for 1775
I gave the ES range in two parts yesterday morning, 1826 to 1835, and 1835 to 1844. The RTH low yesterday was 1835 dead and the overnight high was 1844 dead. Clearly ES has not yet broken out of the range. There was a sharp decline on the Chinese PMI numbers and ES broke down into the lower half of the range and then retested the 50 hour MA on a bounce. The opening advantage belongs to the bears this morning, and as long as we don’t see a break back over the ES 50 hour MA, currently in the 1837 area, then we may well see a test of range support at 1826 today. ES 60min chart: (more…)
New Highs on SP 500
There was a new high on SPX yesterday so, poor quality though Monday’s low was, the final move up to my wedge target at 1965 may now be starting. That was the rising wedge target I gave on 30th June and you can see that post here. The failure to hit rising support from the 1646 low however leaves open the possibility that the 1815 low might be retested over the next few days and that should be borne in mind. There is also a possible double-top in play now targeting the 1780 area on a break below 1815, but I’ll only be considering that seriously on a break below Monday’s low. SPX daily chart: (more…)
Unfinished Business?
I gave two important resistance levels on ES yesterday morning at 1823-5 and 1830, and ES blew through both of them. This action suggests that the retracement low may be in, and if we see SPX break over the last lower high at 1843.45 then the current downtrend will be broken. Furthermore we now have what look like failed double-tops across most US indices, and when these fail there tends to be a strong reaction in the opposite direction, so we may have now started a powerful move up. Nonetheless I think that the retracement low may still be ahead of us, and I’ll show you why I think that may be the case. (more…)
