I’ve had quite a few new readers in the last few months and it struck me yesterday from a couple of comments that at least some of these were obviously still hazy on the distinction between technical analysis and fortune telling. It can be an easy mistake to confuse the first with the second, as a good analyst can sometimes make calls that seem almost supernatural. Some of my past calls have been amazingly and rapidly accurate, and some offhand examples I’d pick would be: (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
A Road to 1884
SPX made my target area at 1965-70 and rejected hard there. A candidate significant high for a 10%+ correction is in place but we’re going to need to see some follow through here first to open up the obvious downside targets for that correction. On the SPX 60min chart the 50 hour MA was broken near the close yesterday and SPX closed below it. I’d like to see that established as resistance today and after that any significant break back above it would be a warning that this retracement might be over. (more…)
The Importance of Not Being Earnest
I just wanted to talk for a moment about conviction bulls and bears today. I’m not one to disparage anyone’s religious convictions, but that being said, it is a firm rule that any genuine chartist will consider the price data before forming any conclusions from that data, and those conclusions will always be a matter of relative probabilities, never absolutes. Any chartist who doesn’t do that isn’t a chartist at all. What they are is something between preachers and public entertainers, without either the long term incentives offered by the first, or the amusing antics of the second. There are a couple of quotes that say this better than I can: (more…)
Spread Between Brent Crude Oil & WTIC Light Crude Oil
I last mentioned the spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTIC Light Crude Oil in this post on May 5th, 2013. At that time, price had narrowed considerably between these two.
The following 3-Year Daily ratio chart of BRENT:WTIC shows that the spread has been widening recently in favour of Brent. With the positive cross of the RSI above 50 and the positive cross-overs of the MACD and Stochastics, it would appear that this spread may continue to widen…if price can break and hold above the 50 and, possibly, 200 MAs.
Looking at Bond Yields
Yesterday was another day just chopping around while we wait for this consolidation to finish. We have been seeing higher highs and lows, which seems bullish until you remember that a typical bear flag forms against the trend, and trends sideways to up. Both SPX and NDX have been doing that under their respective 50 hour MAs and until the break back up over those my working assumption is that we have been watching bear flags forming.There is a decent chance that we will see a break either way today from this consolidation. SPX 60min chart:
