Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Downtrend Resuming I Think

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The rising channel that I showed yesterday morning didn’t survive much past the open. The rally from the AM low was strong, though fitful but I was thinking that things might just e back on track for more upside, though I was concerned that the rally from the lows failed at each of the three retests of broken channel support. I closed the day thinking that the uptrend was fragile, but might just get past 2064 into the highs retest area.

Overnight though ES has fallen hard, and at the time of writing is a clear 25 handles under the close, and well below yesterday’s intraday low, which on SPX is double top with a target in the 2016/7 area on a break below it. SPX 5min chart:

150127 SPX 5min Broken Channel and Poss DT

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Signifying Nothing?

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The greek vote was convincingly won by Syriza last night and they are forming a coalition government with a mandate to try to renegotiate the terms of their debt relief package while remaining within the Euro. The news sent ES down hard but that decline has melted away overnight. Was that decline significant?

Looking at the ES chart it’s hard to see that the overnight action was obviously bearish. The rising wedge from the low last week broke down and retraced 38.2%, which is routine in an ongoing uptrend, and the low retested broken falling wedge resistance, which leans bullish. we might see something more bearish happen today, but as it is this chart looks like a long opportunity rather than a short opportunity. ES 60min chart:

150126 ES 60min Greek Selloff Retracement

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Likely Breakaway Gap Over Resistance Take 2

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On Friday night I posted a quick review of the very bullish setup on SPX at Friday’s close and the full post talking about that was posted yesterday. If you haven’t read that yet you can see that here.

In the short term the possible opening gap over resistance that I was suggesting as likely is looking likely at the time of writing. If that persists into the open then the important thing to remember today is that the bulls most likely own the tape today unless the opening gap fills, in which case we might well see a very strong decline instead, and a new retracement low wouldn’t be unusual. ES 60min chart:

150120 ES 60min Oversized IHS

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What Can’t Go Up ….

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Yesterday I was talking about the strong resistance overhead and what I was talking about was rising megaphone resistance from the 2011 low. That should be strong resistance now and in fact is even stronger than it looks, as on the monthly chart that resistance trendline is anchored at the 2009 low. I am not expecting that resistance line to be breached, with the possible exception of a bearish overthrow, until this rising megaphone has broken down and made target at a fib retracement in the 38.2% to 61.8% fib retracement range.

That’s not to say that SPX couldn’t rise further within this pattern, the pattern is rising by about 20 handles per month and would end this year in the 2350 area, I’m just saying that with strong resistance now in the 2120-30 area, and rising at only 20 handles per month, there can be no strong trend up move that would start here and last more than a couple of weeks. To get that sort of move SPX needs to retrace further to create some headroom, and ideally test or break rising megaphone support, now in the 1865 area.

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