Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

One More Heave …… Probably

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Stan and I are looking for a high this week, or next Monday at the outside, but there’s a possibility that the high might already been in. SPX has been chopping above and below the daily middle band for a week or so now and if SPX should make a conviction break down from it the high might well be in. There are already very nice looking double top setups here on both NDX and RUT. We’re leaning higher first for a number of reasons, but they may not deliver. This is a week to be cautious about getting married to any longs.

One of the reasons we are looking higher here is the triangles forming on SPX and NQ particularly. That triangle is still forming on SPX, as you can see looking at the triangle on the RSI 5. This kind of triangle would generally complete, break up, and then do a thrust up out of the triangle that would open be the final move up in a sequence. SPX daily chart:

161003 SPX Daily

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De Nada

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The bears didn’t have a good day yesterday, with a larger than expected decline on the indices, and clear breaks at the RTH on SPX close back below the daily middle band, the 50 hour MA and the 5dma, and ES losing the key weekly pivot area at 2152.25 that I highlighted as a key close area on a tweet yesterday afternoon. With the historical stats for the last day of September leaning 75% bearish, and the indices resting on key support levels the odds of the ATH retest on SPX that Stan and I have been looking for definitely looking lower, and you can see that reflected in the tone of my comments last night on the charts below.

Overnight though the picture changed entirely, with marginal new lows and 60min buy signals fixing on ES, NQ and TF, and with a triangle confirmed on NQ and a perfect bull flag channel established on TF. On my premarket video for subscribers to the Daily Video Service at theartofchart.net today I was leaning strongly bullish, and I’ve not seen anything since then to change that view. I’m thinking 50% odds or better that SPX trends up today. The direct link to that video is here. Hopefully some of you saw that when I posted that link on twitter before the open today.

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Bullish Set-Up for Oil

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Oil climbed 7% from yesterday’s low to high in reaction to the OPEC cutback news.

More importantly, perhaps, the overnight price action has been well-behaved, near the $47 area. This suggests that after Wednesday’s vertical upmove, oil is building a bull-flag digestion period prior to upside continuation towards a test of the Aug high at $48.75 — in route to a challenge of the June high at $51.67.

After just about every strategist and analyst took to the airwaves with an opinion about the OPEC deal and the prospects for Oil prices — that the deal will fail, and that prices will reverse — it is very impressive technically that oil is perched just off of yesterday’s highs.

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