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The quotes are pleasantly red this morning – -ES down, NQ down, YM down – but one in particular is getting zapped particularly hard, and that is CL, crude oil, which is down nearly 3%. The /CL contract shows that, after a modest reversal pattern (tinted) oil has been steadily weakening.
Just a thought.
I hardly ever use Fibonacci retracements on my charts, and Fibonacci arcs even less. For the crude oil continuous contract, however, I use both.
Seasonality part two appears ready to ignite oil bulls as the March contract futures options come to an end, and two key drivers are leading the charge.
Thursday at settlement (2:30 p.m. EST) will see oil’s March contract options vanish to expiration heaven … or hell if you’ve been trying to trend trade /cl with the bullish seasonality that oil has historically seen when the roll to the February contract options starts.
Commodities, led by oil, have been very strong since December 26th (just like equities). We are approaching the 50-day EMA, however, which could be an exhaustion point for this sector.
