Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Correction Higher In Risk (by cantabnomad)

By -

Equities and other risky assets will likely sell-off hard fairly soon. I consider it highly unlikely that sustained upside progress can be made.

Below is a daily chart of the German DAX. This is my count and projections, unchanged from January 2010.

This is an hourly chart of mainland Chinese large caps traded in Hong Kong (the H-shares index). This index is weaker than the Hang Seng, and failed to take out the resistance highlighted by the red box. From Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from February lows has been corrective and is very likely over at current levels. This index is putting in a massive, massive top. All this for the companies that cater to the market that will save the world in 2010???



Flying PI(I)GS (by cantabnomad)

By -

Contrary to their Northern brethren, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain peaked in October 2009. What followed is now history, and it is widely claimed that Greek problems will be contained.

Below is a GDP-weighted composite index of stock markets of countries listed above. Combined, their GDP is 90% that of China (in nominal USD) – so this is no small fish. I present my favoured scenario in this daily chart. The declines so far have been impulsive; rallies corrective. Of further note is the fact that 55 and 85 day moving averages are falling, and the 55 day one is about to cross the 200 day one from above (bearish).

An alternative scenario for this funky group is presented below. While it is certainly possible that PI(I)GS will fly in what would be a massive "C" wave higher, I consider the outcome unlikely. This will change should we get closes above January 2010 levels, which would confirm the move since October 2009 as an ABC correction lower, pending further upside.

Originally published at http://observemarkets.blogspot.com/

Correction Is Likely Finished (by cantabnomad)

By -

How poor is the outlook for equities? Very, very poor. It is a disaster waiting to happen. While in the short-term marginal new highs are possible for most indices, in the medium-term risk and related assets are likely to face substantial difficulties moving higher, and will most likely move lower swiftly.

Below is a daily chart of the German DAX with my projections from 15 January 2010. So far, everything has been unfolding according to plan. If this continues to be the case, for which there is ample evidence, I believe we will see this index about 20% lower in the next 5 or so weeks.


This is an hourly chart of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong. It is currently trading at levels first achieved in August 2009 – fully eight months ago. As you can see, the index is firmly parked in a range (highlighted by the black box) that acted as support and resistance during those last eight months. From Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from February lows has been corrective and is very likely over at current levels. This index is putting in a massive, massive top.

This is an hourly chart shares of mainland Chinese large caps traded in Hong Kong (the H-shares index). This index (also shown on a daily time frame on the last chart in today's post) is weaker than the Hang Seng, currently trading below the price range, highlighted by the black box, that acted as support or resistance since August 2009. From Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from February lows has been corrective and is very likely over at current levels. This index is also putting in a massive, massive top. All this for the companies that cater to the market that will save the world in 2010???

H-shares index in Hong Kong is about to put in a "death cross" of 55 day moving average moving below the 200 day moving average for the first time since March 2008.

Originally published on http://observemarkets.blogspot.com/

Secular Bull Market Confirmed

By -

(Note from Tim: it's quite important you carefully read the final portion of this post.)

All indicators, both technical and fundamentals have just confirmed a secular bull market.

The future has never been clearer to us. Forget every bearish analysis you have ever read – 1937, 2004, 1929…Great grand supercycle bull rally is upon us. Fundamentally the explantion is simple – money printing. Just like Zimbabwe's index went up 2000% when their currency devalued to nothing, the Dow is about to explode to the upside. Cross commodity correlation have also independently confirmed this uptrend. The market is at an inflection point, and the outcome is a burst higher. You will miss out if you are not loaded on the long side, and if you are short you should be very concern. As you can see from our very detailed charting using Prophet 5.0 charting software by Tom Night (contact us if you wish to buy a copy)

20000 Dow Jones 

The inverse head and shoulder pattern has confirmed a secular bull market for at least the next 10 years. We are expecting a push higher as part of Wave C of 3. Fibonacci calculations are expecting at least a DJIA target of 21439 (ie 14150/21439 = 0.66).

We are going all in long!

Bulls and Bears, please post this on as many blogs as you can.

Note to bears, please highlight the rest of this post with your cursor:

We are NOT bullish, but as a contrarion we need to get the message out there that we bears have given up. If we keep telling everyone how bad the market is, Goldman and gang will continue to pump the markets higher. So lets all jump into a bull suit, and spread the bull propaganda! When you see the message above across Bloomberg, CNN, CNBC, etc, our mission is complete and the cataclysmic crash we expect is due.

Full cooperation is required especially from all webmasters (Tony Caldaro, Tim Knight, Guy Lerner, Corey Rosenbloom, Mish Shedlock). Do not forget to change the colour of the font of this section to blend in with the background so that it is completely invisible. If bulls are able to decipher this hidden message, our plan will fail and the Dow could go to 21439 with all the money printing!

KISS My EW (by George)

By -

One of Albert's many good quotes is, "Keep things as simply as possible, but not any simpler."

Well,
what I know about Elliott Wave is that 1) it is fractal and 2) the
pattern is 5-3. However, that is enough information to help me draw
some interesting conclusions.

EW SP2

The chart above says it all. Wave 5 has just begun.
Corrective Wave 2 and 4 are boxed. Both corrections were exactly 9.1%,
and both had distinct 3 wave patterns. As such, the other sell-offs
along this bull market, which arguably did not have distinct 3 wave
patterns, can be disregarded in the wave count. Another argument
validating W2 and w4 is that each has touched the major channel that
envelopes this entire bull market.

Here's the break down of the up-waves:

EW numbers

Note that W1 and W3 had nearly identical point moves. The average is
285. If you tack that onto the Feb low of 1045, the result is 1330. This price is in the upper bound of the channel that I have drawn in the chart. Also, 2 x 666.79 equals 1333.50. The bull market terminates at a 100% return. Picture perfect.

****
Note:
the speculation of a move to 1330 is fun and elegant, but I do not give
it too much weight. It's possible, but I currently think 1240-1275 will
be the top. However, the critical thesis in the argument above is that
the final up-wave of the bull market has just begun.

You can find other analyses of mine at White Magic & Its Exposure