Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fibonacci Resistance Levels on S&P 500 E-mini Futures

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Depicted on the Weekly chart below of the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index (ES), are two External Fibonacci Retracements, a Fibonacci Extension, and a channel.

There are two upcoming levels of confluence representing major resistance:

  • the first is between 2139 and 2155 (which could be hit any day now)
  • the second is between 2213 and 2216 (which could be hit around July 20th if this extreme bull run continues in an aggressive, sustained momentum)

I’d watch for any aggressive drop below 2070 to signal a possible re-test of the bottom of the channel around the 1980 level, or even lower (I’d watch for general signs of weakness in the Dow Jones Composite Index — as noted in my post of June 20th — as confirmation)…otherwise, if price holds above 2070, we could very well see the second target resistance level hit by July 20th.

Eye on EBAY

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After breaking out, EBAY pulled back to the 61-handle support area, allowing us to unwind the puts entered into at resistance in our model portfolio.  This was just in time, as EBAY reversed to push to new highs, despite a week tape. At this point, it is likely that wave (iii) of circle-iii will reach at least the 1.618 extension of wave (i) at 65.00 (red fibs). I will consider reducing risk at that time. Conversely, further pullbacks to 61 handle will have me consider adding to the long side of the trade.

full-63fce2e5a6b353c6bf854deb6ec9eaed694ade74By Xenia Taoubina, ElliottWaveTrader.net

GPS Looking Lower

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GPS experienced significant downside last week, in a move that I count as capitulation under my base case. Though Friday’s unrelenting rally did make some progress in beginning to repair that decline, initial confirmation of the perspective shown under either of the two counts on the attached chart is a rally to 40 area. Until then, it is reasonably probable that GPS may have, indeed, broken down. My base case, however, remains that October low (35.46) will not be broken without a move to 43.85 at a minimum. Not planning any changes to this position, at this time.

full-73bfe75a1ab5f663c01d788f1361f929379e3f7d

by Xenia Taoubina, ElliottWaveTrader.net

 

Two Charts to Watch

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A strong move in KRFT on Friday is initial confirmation of a completed wave 4. On a micro level, however, no 5-up has emerged so far. KRFT needs to stage a 5-up of proportions that, at the very least, reach wave circle-b top at 89.00 to make it likely that all of 4 has completed. Should such a bullish development be seen, I will look to add to this trade on a pullback, as, big picture, I very much like this pattern.

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