Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
With Q1 2023 behind us, I offer below a dozen charts (almost all of them ETFs) presented in as monthly bars. This very crude granularity allows one to see in very simple terms what the long-term personality of each financial instrument is at present. I’ve put my remarks for each item in the caption area of every chart.
Well, here is EXACTLY the kind of screw-up I’ve only executed a few billion times in my trading life. Yesterday morning, following LULU’s gigantic surge, I went long puts on the stock. By day’s end, the puts were up about 5%, and I intended to hang on to them for at least a few weeks. This morning, however, during the insane run-up in stock prices, I panicked and dumped them at a loss. I did so at the EXACT millisecond they peaked. I’m disgusted with myself.
I’m afraid I might have some bad news for the bears and, frankly, I’m not that surprised, because things have been absolutely glorious for a few days now, and “a few days” is about the lifespan of happiness for the bearish set.
What I am referring to is what I call the Fed Spread, which is probably a misleading and inaccurate term, but it’s my shorthand way of saying “The calculation of a bunch of Federal Reserve data that comes out every Thursday afternoon and does a good job predicting the S&P two weeks into the future.” See, it just comes out easier my way.
Over the past few days, a major bank has failed pretty much every single day (Silicon Valley Bank, then Signature, then First Republic, then Credit Suisse………you get the idea) and, naturally, the central bankers of the world did the only thing they know how to do, which is to throw literally trillions of dollars at the problem.
(more…)I didn’t say surprised. I said appalled.
I’ve got too much going on right now to create an epic post to describe my revulsion and disgust at how the United States government has, once again, bailed out the upper echelon. I expected it, although I held out a glimmer of hope that, for the first time in decades, SOMEONE would bear SOME consequences for their actions. But, nope. Crime pays, and screw-ups are unwound. I truly am learning to hate this country and what it now represents. What a horrid fall from grace. The USA truly sucks now.
I miss my bear market more than words can express. Almost the entire first half of 2022 was a glorious romp through the ursine fields of paradise. Ever since June 16th, however, and particularly since October 13th, it’s been a glorious romp through acres of fresh manure. Even just recently, for no discernable reason, the market has been roaring higher.
