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There’s not a lot going on this morning, but oil is kind of interesting, down nearly 2.5% as I’m typing this due to concerns that the U.S. producers will be ramping up their output due to stronger prices. For weeks now, oil has been in a very tight range of only about $2. The key, though, is the lower end of that range – about $52 – because, if broken, we could finally see the uptrend snapped and move back into the upper 40s, dragging energy stocks down with it.
First published Sun Jan 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Last weekend (Christmas weekend), I noted that set ups such as we have been seeing in the GDX usually lead to strong rallies which can see a 10% move higher quite quickly. Since then, the GDX ran 19% from its recent lows, with Thursday (Dec 29) alone seeing a 7.5% rise. Yes, these divergent set ups can provide for powerful reversal reactions. But, it does not mean we are out of the woods just yet.
In fact, silver still is quite weak, and gold has not yet convinced me either. Moreover, one does not have to make this very complicated at this point in time when one views the daily chart on the GDX. As many of you, as well as the rest of the market, have been seeing the downtrend channel we have developed in the GDX, we cannot gain escape velocity until we are able to clear that 22.50 region.
2017 is likely to be an interesting year, and the tape has already shaken off the December cobwebs and is moving again. On the bigger picture the chart below is how I’m seeing SPX on the monthly chart here, and the key message is that the bull market from the 2009 low here is most likely topping out or has already topped, though that doesn’t mean that SPX will necessarily drop much in 2017. This has been an eight year bull market and if we see the retracement that I’m looking at on the chart below, then we may not see that bear market low until 2020/1. If we see that 50% retracement then that would be a beautiful fibonacci move, and should then set up a very nice long into the next bull market.
Welcome to a new trading year, everyone. It looks like the animal spirits continue to run strong for equities, as just about every asset class is in the green. One zone in particular which is looking like it’s truly breaking out for another leg up is crude oil. Perhaps the big OPEC deal has more legs than people gave it credit for.
Happy new week, everyone. I’m relieved we’re past Thanksgiving and can get back to normalcy. I wanted to make a couple of remarks about two big commodities out there – gold and oil.
As for gold, it’s been having a wretched time since July 6th, from which it’s fallen about 15%. It is finally getting a little bit of strength, but I think it’ll be short-lived. The most logical place for it to crawl back would be the gap I’ve pointed out below, just about $1200. After such time, I think the weakness will continue afoot. I have no precious metals positions at all right now, but if gold strength continues, I’ll be looking hard at GDXJ again for a short sale.
