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Hello, Slopers, and remember today is a shortened trading day, with equities closing three hours before the normal time.
My “Big Short” for 2018 remains bonds. The bond market has, since May 18th, had a powerful push higher, but as I so often write, it’s all about context. The multi-decade uptrend has decisively broken, and my view is that this bounce is nothing more than a push back toward resistance.
The following three graphs show the percentages gained/lost for commodities for:
Chart #1 is a monthly chart of WTIC Crude Oil (in the upper half) and the CL:OVX ratio (depicted in histogram format in the lower half).
As I’ve noted recently, the major price resistance and support levels are 80.00 and 60.00, respectively.
Corresponding to those are the major ratio resistance and support levels of 3.00 and 2.00, respectively. In this regard, it will be important for the ratio to remain above 2.00 and the ratio 5 MA to remain above the 8 MA to confirm an upward bias on Oil on this timeframe. (more…)
This is from last June……..
What a reversal today, eh? Jeeeeeeeeez. Anyway, just a glance at a couple of big commodity-focused funds, showing how the world of commodities (which everyone seems bullish about, since it’s an “inflation trade”, straight from the early 1970s) is going south.
