Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Another In-Between Day and USD

By -

We stopped just shy of a new high on SPX on Thursday, but that was
no surprise. As soon as we reached 1140 and most of the other indices
made new highs, a new high on SPX looked almost certain.

What we are waiting for is the push to the next interim top to be completed, and that doesn't look at all far away now.

As I suggested it might before the open yesterday, ES hit the bottom
trendline of the rising channel yesterday and bounced off it, though
not before poking a pinocchio nose through the trendline:

100312_ESM0_60min_Rising_Channel

Much to my surprise EURUSD finally reached the top trendline of the
declining channel, and punched right through it. I had a close look at
it and have identified a potential new rising channel that looks
tradeable:

100312_EURUSD_60min_Channels

After having a very good look again at USD this morning I see that I
have been relying too much on EURUSD as a proxy for USD. The USD
(DXM0/June) rising channel is still very much unbroken and looking at
the confirmed and still resolving H&S pattern within that channel,
a hit of the bottom of the USD channel soon looks extremely likely from
here. DXM0 looks likely to hit the bottom of the rising channel
somewhere between 79.5 and 79.6, depending on how long it takes to get
there. I've marked the previous channel touches and their close
proximity to the equities interim tops and bottoms of recent months:

100312_DXM0_60min_Channel_and_Patterns

This could well push oil up a bit further, though there really isn't
much room left in oil's rising wedge, which will very likely break down
and start playing out in the next few days. A new high on oil looks
unlikely from here, and a fall back into the early 70s after the next
interim top is made is very much on the cards:

100312_CLM0_Rising_Wedge

Now there is a lot of talk from discouraged bears at the moment that we
are breaking through equities resistance so hard that we will melt
upwards into the 1200s without a significant correction first. I think
that a move into the 1200s is very much on the cards, and we will most
likely see that in the next few months unless the SPX main rising
channel is broken on the next retracement. However we have very solid
resistance just above at the 1160 level, and while I wouldn't be
surprised to see us peak this time a little higher than that, I would
be very surprised to see that broken with conviction without a
significant retracement first. I have marked the SPX main channel and
the key support and resistance levels on this SPX daily chart:

100312 SPX Daily Rising Channel and SR Levels

That isn't the only strong resistance just above us here though.
mmTesla showed me a very interesting long term chart the other day that
I hope he won't mind me reposting it for everyone to see here:

100312 SPX Long Term Fib Fan

I'm expecting to see the interim top put in today or Monday, and to
see a very significant decline after that. It is worth noting that
current pain on SPY is 111, and next week is opex week. After the
interim top is in, any bears still left standing after this amazing
wave up should then have a very pleasant rest of the month shorting the
correction.

However this will only be a top of real significance if the bottom
trendline of the main SPX rising channel, currently at 1080 and rising,
is broken on the way down. Unless that is broken, this retracement will
just be a short scalp opportunity and dip-buying long setup.

“Peak Oil” Nonsense

By -

Peak Oil? Nonsense. Sure, conserve energy and go green and all that, but let's stick to the facts about oil reserves.

Otherwise, I’ve just about had it with this dramatized rant and whoop and holler by certain a certain poster here and other alarmists about the “Dangers of Peak Oil.” He goes around on the net finding other soothsayers that supports his theory to get more hype for his website, and cries “fire” to get people to stampede his website for more information on how to head off another “crisis.”

Slope is too sacred of a temple of truth to allow this crap to splash the walls and not get cleaned off.

I'm just a Petroleum Engineer, not a scientist or a Doctorate PS Bullshitist, but about the closest thing you'll know to an expert on the subject of oil reserves, other than "THE Expert," whomever the media says that is next.

Over the past 33 years mankind has consumed more than three times the world’s known oil reserves in 1976 – and today proven oil reserves are nearly double what they were before we started. The story with natural gas is even better – here and around the world enormous amounts of natural gas have been found. More will be found.

There will never be "no oil" in your lifetime, so relax, and discern the truth for yourself when you get the facts. If you are old enough to read this, your shiny car will have plenty of gasoline for your lifetime. You may not be able to afford it, but they cannot possibly run out. So all you have to do is make some money with us here on Slope, and you’re set, just like the politicians. Whenever there is GREAT change, there is also GREAT opportunity. It is impossible to be otherwise. Instead of worrying about the black hole right now, look for new opportunities… it won't take long, they're EVERYWHERE.

Now that oil is $80/bbl, it opens the door to production of different grades of oil and different kinds of oil, and new places that oil was never thought to exist.

America has the biggest "Shale Oil" field in the world, at over a trillion barrels, that has never been tapped until two years ago, because it will be expensive to extract, and the technology has not yet been improved enough to tackle it before then. But money solves a lot of problems, and $100/bbl oil would certainly do it. You will have to be surprised how fast the technology will ramp up when there's a profit to be made. Just type in “shale oil reserves” into your little Search Bar, and you’ll come up with hundreds of new projects that have never before been thought possible. And these are primarily domestic, lower 48 States, where the oil in America was thought to be depleted!

Ever heard of the Bakken Formation? No? Why not? GOOGLE it, Mr. OilPrice, or follow this link. It will blow your mind. http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. There’s enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 40 years straight. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL! Well, except we know those damn oil barrons are going to gouge us, but cheap oil nonetheless.

Another example of huge unexpected and unknown reserves are the "Coal Oil" sands in Canada that they are already extracting by truck and converting to usable oil. It's slower to extract and convert than to simply produce liquid oil, but the one field they are producing from today is bigger than the Saudi field, which is the biggest in the world. And that isn't the only "Coal Oil" field in Canada, and certainly not the only one in the world. These Coal Oil fields contain almost as much oil as the Saudi Arabian oil fields.

Most people don't realize that we only produce about 20% of the oil from a producing oil sand (conventional production), and leave the rest of it there because it was too expensive to produce by secondary or tertiary recovery methods. That is no longer true, so the natural oil reserves just doubled when the price of oil doubled.

One more real obvious report that you should have caught up on, is the the Stansberry Report from 2006. Hidden only 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. Who gives a blinking crap about “Peak Oil?” It’s just more jargon that we don’t understand to create a crisis from (sorry about the hanging past participle).

Governments and alarmists that don’t care about the truth or the facts are good at creating crisis after crisis, so that they can be your friend and be the only one to solve the problem, that is, by taking control, taking your rights, enacting more laws, forming more committees out of their cousins, and generally living like Kings off of years of perceived crisis. Oh yeah, and they can take over whole countries if they need to and the gullible public is behind them on an invasion, and they can get enough young people to fight their special-interest wars for them.

No sir, the only real perceived crisis here is that the great masses of people will figure out that there is not a shortage, but rather an EXCESS of oil, for centuries to come, and that the price of oil should be back down around $20/bbl. Whatta ya’ know, we’ve been lied to again.

When I was in college in the 1970's, the known problem of that time was that temperatures were getting "colder." By the year 2030, it would be so cold that plants could not live and man would face extinction without drastically changing things. That was to be in my lifetime.

But now the "experts" claim "Global Warming." It's all just a theory, like Evolution, but after so many "experts" parrot the "truth" in the media, and even colleges and universities begin teaching it as truth, then it becomes "truth,' even when at best it's a 50-50 shot. I’ve read that 63% of those surveyed were “concerned” about Global Warming. Geez, don’t people even know how to ask the right questions anymore?

Why make a crisis out of something? There's money to be made, control to be taken, and new gov't offices to fill. And of course, the 30-year cooling trend that prompted the global cooling scare in the mid-70s abruptly ended in the late 70s, replaced by with a 20-year warming trend that peaked in 1998.

Watch this short video from the founder of the Weather Channel how he blows Al Gore's climate change scam out the window. Finally, a REAL EXPERT showing the fallacy of the concept of "global warming". www.kusi.com/home/78477082.html?video=pop&t=a

Philosophy Section

If you don’t mind, I would like to delve a little bit into what you might think you “know.” Tim likes philosophical stuff, so maybe he will let me rant on the rant, of why I’m having to waste my time keeping others from wasting your time with more worthless and time-consuming “information” that doesn’t hold a candle to truth.

How can a “Theory” of Evolution be taken as fact so easily, when this treatise involved in biology asserts no proof, or even a well-defined premise, that man evolved from apes? Even if the truth we are seeking were revealed, people believe that because they comprehend, they conclude that they have successfully taken in the material and reached a proper conclusion. Permanent incorporation requires repeated exposures and answering difficult questions. We can eliminate this major misconception or false expectation with the evidence of psychological research and the Ebbinghaus Curve of Forgetting. Recall deteriorates rapidly unless refreshed; a known fact, proven.

Well, getting too long-winded. I’ve written a whole Essay on truth and how we “know” things, another four pages. It even answers the question “What is truth?” Not even Plato could answer that question.

If anybody’s interested, let me know, and I’ll post it. Oh, and as an aside, it even answers the question of “Why did God create man?” with a darn good “theory.” I challenge you to come up with a better one.

Mike Paulenoff’s Mid-Day Minute: Gold

By -

Gold — the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) — have turned positive this morning, in the aftermath of intense selling pressure earlier in the session. This is a sign of meaningful relative strength in the sector, but the day is young yet. Looking at the GDX chart, today's spike low at 41.35 followed by a powerful upmove to 42.50 — where it continues to sustain since the opening few minutes — has the look and the feel of the completion of the correction from the 2/18 high at 45.56. With that in mind, I am looking for confirmation of today's low upon an upside penetration of 43.05.

Originally published on MPTrader.com

Drainage Has Gas (by Drainage)

By -

Drainage_cartoon

This post is for swing traders and investors interested in
playing U.S. natural gas production companies. I chose to focus on producers as
they have the most trading excitement due to their exposure to the volatility
of the price of the underlying commodity, exploration risk/reward and more
recently, due to their potential as acquisition targets. 

Here are some fundamental factoids. 

Natural gas:
 + is a necessity – it is
used to generate 20% of our electricity and heats more than half of our
homes
 + is trading near long term
low prices
 + is abundant in North
America and around the world – there is oversupply given current demand
 + can be a transportation
fuel – particularly for intra-city fleets
 + production and consumption
is increasing in the US and around the world
 + burns cleaner than oil and
coal and may benefit from new environmental/climate regulations

The following charts show how U.S. natural gas production and
consumption is growing, with gas rivaling coal in terms of heat content
produced and used within the country.

US_energy_prod_by_sourceUS_energy_use_by_source

More than any other factor, the stock price of natural gas
producers is driven by the price of natural gas. Note that there has been a significant
recovery from the August-September 2009 lows of less than $3/million Btu, when
gas storage capacity was almost completely filled. But the current price of
$5.50/MMBtu is still well below the $13 peak of July, 2008.  A return to $7-8/MMBtu gas does not require
too much of an imagination.

NATGAS_weekly

Looking at stock price charts of natural gas exploration and
production companies the commodity price driver is plainly evident, but it is
also possible to discern the effects of events such as major new discoveries
and M&A activities.

MMR_weekly

As an example of price driven by drilling success, McMoran
Exploration Co. (MMR) made a major new discovery on its Davy Jones prospect and
the stock responded favorably when the news was announced in January, 2010.

XTO_weekly

XTO Energy (XTO) gained 17% the day Exxon Mobil announced
its intent to acquire the company in December, 2009. As the deal was in stock,
it has subsequently fallen along with the price of XOM.

BEXP_weekly

Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP) is a textbook example of a
company producing both gas and oil in a hot play, in this case the Bakken of
North Dakota, with both oil and gas production. 
BEXP has almost regained its 2008 highs, in no small part due to the
recovery in oil prices.

My current favorite pick among US natural gas producers is
Sandridge Energy (SD) which has discovered an enormous gas resource base in the
West Texas Overthrust area and has become recently more oily with its
acquisition of Forest Oil producing properties in the Permian Basin to the
north.  This summer, a gas processing
plant developed in partnership with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will be
completed. The gas plant will separate the natural gas (methane) from the CO2
that is produced along with it. The CO2 will be used for enhanced oil recovery
in mature fields in the Permian Basin. With a modest $1.5B market cap and
reserves that would be material to a major oil company, it makes an attractive
acquisition target. 

SD_weekly

But what I really like about SD is its chart and the firm
horizontal base (green line) that has been providing consistent support at a
little above $8 since April, 2009. I also like that the stock price did not
significantly weaken during the August-September 2009 gas price lows.  Some of you may interpret this as a head and
shoulders pattern, but given the limited recovery of SD since the 2008 crash,
it is hard for me to consider this a classical topping pattern.

 SD_daily

A move off this now ten month-old base could be powerful, so
I have been a buyer when it gets near this important support line.  The daily chart indicates the possibility of
a double bottom forming off this support. Next week’s action will confirm or
reject the double-bottom hypothesis. On this chart, it is easy to see how with
a positive catalyst, SD could trade over $14. Buying at $8 and selling near $10
could make a nice shorter-term swing trade.