Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

QE Rhymes (by Springheel Jack)

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I've been mentioning the comparison with the start of QE2 almost every day since QE3 was announced. QE2 was also trailed in advance, with a steep rise into the announcement, a break up on the announcement over the daily bollinger bands on SPX, and then a short term high there that was followed by a retracement. Obviously SPX in the wake of the QE3 announcement has been following the same script so far, and that may well continue, as the stats for Mondays recently, and also for this week historically, are both flat to down. Here's the chart of the QE2 period showing the post QE2 announcement retracement on SPX:

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Deja Vu So Far (by Springheel Jack)

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I was reading a writeup from a fairly well known analyst yesterday stating confidently that QE announcements are followed by bull runs of 10% to 15% in the following four to six weeks. He shall remain nameless, but the evidence doesn't really back up that view. It's true that when QE1 was announced in November 2008 there was a rally from the 800 area to the January high at 943.85 but there's a very good argument that was coincidental, as SPX was already rallying from a very oversold short term double bottom at 741.02 into the January 2009 high before the final bear market decline into the March 2009 low. The picture from the announcement of QE2 looked rather different. 

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