Toronto's TSX Index closed last Thursday just above major support, as shown on the Daily chart below. At the moment, it is hovering just above this 12000 level during Monday's trading session. Whether or not the recent bullish Golden Cross will be sufficient incentive for the bulls to re-enter this market remains to be seen. A bounce in commodities (gold and oil stocks) could reverse this recent pullback…so far today, they have been unable to hold at their highs of the day and are dropping as I'm writing this. A break and hold below 12000 on the TSX would be very bearish.

I'm also keeping an eye on the YM, ES, NQ & TF…each candle on these four charts below represents three days…the current candle closed on Friday. It's important that the 2011 high hold as support on the ES, otherwise we may see a waterfall drop occur on these four e-mini futures indices.

Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 1 of April, 2012 (which was a short week because of the holiday on Good Friday).

The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they all closed lower than the prior week on a bearish engulfing candle (which is a warning that further downside movement may be forthcoming on this weekly timeframe). Both the YM & TF have now closed below the uptrending channel, the ES closed just inside, and the NQ closed above the channel. Because these e-mini futures markets were open until 9:15am Friday morning, and because they all dropped considerably at 8:30am after the jobs and unemployment reports were released, this Weekly candle's close contains this drop…this drop won't, however, be reflected in these e-mini's Major Indices counterparts since these markets were closed.

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Will the correct Chinese Manufacturing Data please present itself? As shown on the graphs below, two data releases made on March 31st show widely differing results even though the first one (CFLP Manufacturing PMI) mentions that it's "tightly correlated" with HSBC Manufacturing PMI.

Perhaps Asian market reaction Monday morning will shed some light as to which one is correct.

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Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 5 of March 2012.

The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that YM, ES & NQ made a higher close and TF made a slightly lower close than the prior week. The uptrending channel is still holding as support and direction for the Weekly timeframe…although the TF closed on the lower channel…one to watch, again, for potential developing weakness.

I'll reiterate what I said in my last weekly market update…if the Major Indices are going to continue a convincing rally from here, it will be important for the Russell 2000 to break (convincingly) and hold above its February highs to provide added fuel. A failed breakout could lead to the onset of weakness, not only in this index, but also in the others.

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