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On Tuesday, Toronto's TSX Index closed below major support and below December 2011 lows, as shown on the Daily chart below. The RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators are still trending down. The 50 sma has now crossed below the 200 sma and we now have a bearish "Death Cross" formation on this index.
Further to the comments in my post of May 11th pertaining to JPM, the Monthly comparison chart below of JPM (purple), the four Major Indices, and the Financials ETF (XLF) shows the major swings of JPM from 1990 to Monday's close.
As you can see, its swings have been very much more volatile and large in comparison with the Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000, and XLF. It has, however, behaved more in line with the Nasdaq 100 Index (green). Both of these instruments have traded much more aggressively over the past 22 years, indicating a much greater appetite for risk than the others. However, when losses have happened, they have also happened to a much greater extent in these two on a percentage basis than in the others.
The price of JPM now sits down at 1998 levels, and, at the moment, the risk trade in it is OFF. I'll continue to monitor it relative to these indices and XLF in order to gauge its relative strength/weakness over the next weeks/months.
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 2 of May 2012.
The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they closed lower than last week's bearish engulfing candle, except the TF, which closed marginally higher. They are still range-bound from January. Until we see price break out of this range one way or the other with conviction on increasing volumes, we may see an attempt at a bounce on Monday.
As I mentioned in my market update of April 13th, I'm assigning a weekly bullish or bearish rating on YM, ES, NQ & TF until the end of this year. Please refer to that post for the parameters, and to the Weekly charts below. As of this past week's close, the ratings for next week are as follows:
A gentle reminder of my Top-Down Analysis of SPX…
Below is an update of the Daily chart…my comments still stand…looking for a break and hold beneath 1350…target is 1250.
These are the results of Europe's ECB LTRO 1 & 2 programs (Daily chart of the European Financials ETF, EUFN)…you be the judge as to whether they have worked.
