Can consumer/economic confidence be wooed once again? It will take some doing after Tuesday's soft data:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Money Flow for June Week One
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 1 of June 2012.
The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they all closed higher than the prior week…the YM & NQ on slightly lower volumes, and the ES & TF on slightly higher volumes. They have reverted to last month's Volume Profile POC (yellow horizontal line), and are back inside their lower Bollinger Band. The YM & ES have closed back above trendline resistance, the NQ has remained in its uptrending channel, and the TF has closed just below price resistance. I'd like to see increasing volumes on any advance beyond their closing prices to confirm any potential sustainable rally up to, firstly, the middle Bollinger Band, and, ultimately, the upper Bollinger Band…otherwise, look for more volatile and deep intraday swings, and possibly a new low.
Shanghai Stock Index at Critical Support
The Daily chart below of the Shanghai Stock Index shows that price closed on Monday just above a major (and recent) support level of 2300. It is trading below both the 50 and 200 smas, which may or may not cross to form a bullish “Golden Cross.” However, in the meantime, the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators have hooked down again on increasing downside momentum.
A break with conviction below 2300 could send this index down to the next support level of 2250, and subsequently 2150…one worth watching overnight to see where it closes on Tuesday and for the days/weeks ahead to gauge its influence (if any) on price action on the U.S. Major Indices.
Money Flow for May Week Five
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 5 of May 2012.
The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they all closed lower than the prior week…on slightly higher volumes on YM & ES and on slightly lower volumes on NQ & TF. With the exception of the NQ, the others have closed below their lower Bollinger Band, their weekly 50 sma, and trendline or price support…the moving average and trendlines are now near-term resistance. The NQ is still just within its rising channel from the 2011 low.
As I mentioned in my weekly market update of April 13th, I’m assigning a weekly bullish or bearish rating on YM, ES, NQ & TF until the end of the year. Please refer to that post for the parameters, and to the Weekly charts below. As of this past week’s close, the ratings for next week are as follows:
My Math Says “Contraction”
Data released on Friday is shown below…the blue box contains prior figures and the red box contains Friday's figures…numbers in the middle are estimates.
Apart from Personal Spending (which tells me that Consumer Debt is still rising), my math adds up to "contraction" in these numbers. You can give it a nicer name like "slowing growth," but it's still "contraction."
I've written about Consumer Debt in these past posts (it's not a pretty picture):
http://www.strawberryblondesmarketsummary.com/2012/03/consumer-credit-levels-higher-than-in.html
http://www.strawberryblondesmarketsummary.com/2012/03/will-american-consumer-save-day.html
http://www.strawberryblondesmarketsummary.com/2012/05/consumer-debt-bubble-looming.html
