Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Fed Can’t Save the GDP Numbers

By -

Data released today shows that the Q2 Final
GDP fell short of meeting expectations as it came in at 1.3%
versus 1.7%.

The graph below shows that it's generally been in
decline from its peak in December 2003. For the past three years, it's been well
below the average seen from 2004 to 2008…proof that the Fed has kept
the markets artificially inflated since they are currently trading back
up at 2008 levels, or much higher as is the case in the Nasdaq 100 Index,
without the fundamentals to support current prices or continued growth
expectations at the same pace, particularly without the assistance of joint
political economic efforts/policies, as has been the case to date.

(more…)

950 versus 666 for Small Caps

By -

Further to my post of September 15th, and further to Caterpillar Inc's
projections today (Tuesday) for economic growth to be anemic through 2015, if
the Russell 2000 (as represented by its E-mini Futures Index, the
TF) grew at an anemic rate from here through 2015, we may see price hit
950ish by October 2015 if price remained above the 60%
Fibonacci fanline (broken green line) and closed where it meets the first set of
External Fibonacci and Fibonacci Extension confluence levels, as shown on the
Monthly chart below.

(more…)

China’s Shanghai Index at Variance with CB Leading Index

By -

Data released Monday night shows that China's CB
Leading Index spiked up to its highest reading in two years, as shown
on the graph below. "This index is designed to predict the direction of the
economy." It's a "combined reading of six economic indicators related to total
loans issued, raw material supplies index, new orders, consumer expectations,
export orders, and housing."

As I outlined in my post of September 20th, the Shanghai Index
tells a different story as it trades at three-year lows and threatens to fall
off a cliff, but China's Financials Sector has been trading in
an opposite direction.

The question is, "Do we believe that the data is
actually reflective of China's economy, or is its Index?"

The
Shanghai Index has trended in diametric opposition to the
S&P 500 Index over the past three years. Which one
accurately reflects its country's economy, if either?

No wonder people
are confused and are in the dark as to the real fundamentals of both the economy
and the companies listed in the stock exchanges (and their actual values)!
Hence, they are reluctant to commit any excess cash to the markets, particularly, it
would seem, in China.

Sept-Oct Options Expiry Pivot Points for Major Indices

By -

Each candle on the chartgrid of the 6 Major Indices below represents one
monthly Options Expiration period. The last candle shows market
gains/losses for the August-September series and finished on this past Friday's
Options Quadruple Witching.

For the information of any who are interested
in Pivot Point support/resistance levels, here are the mid-Pivot
Points for the next one-month period (September-October):

  • Dow 30 = 13403.27
  • S&P 500 = 1443.74
  • Dow Transports = 5015.78
  • Nasdaq 100 = 2828.10
  • Russell 2000 = 842.42
  • Dow Utilities = 472.51

We'll see how bullish/bearish market action
becomes on any retest of these levels, and whether any trend reversals
materialize around them.