Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

SPX Rising Wedge Resistance Again

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I was saying in my post last Thursday that if support was found at the levels being tested then, the next target within the rising wedge would be wedge resistance in the 4500 area, and well, here we are.

Now we are back at the daily upper band, and testing a wedge resistance trendline that has already held several times. The chances are that SPX is making another high here, setting up a pattern that can take us lower again than the last decline, so that is what I’ll be looking at today.

In terms of the wedge itself, it is high quality, with an excellent resistance trendline that is unlikely to be broken significantly unless we are going to see a bearish overthrow, not uncommon at a significant high on wedges, or unless the wedge breaks up with a target in the 6800 area which sounds crazy, but really the market went through crazy without a backward glance a while back so it can’t be ruled out altogether.

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Testing Key Support Levels

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SPX went to the resistance trendline that I was looking at in my last post and we have seen a 2%+ retracement from there so far.

On the daily chart the RSI 5 has reached the 30 level and the close yesterday delivered a clear break below the first big support level at the daily middle band. If that break below the daily middle band is going to confirm today, then SPX needs a close today at or below the SPX daily middle band, currently in the 4325 area.

I was doing an intraday webinar at theartofchart.net on Tuesday after the first leg down on this move and was looking at the obvious rally target at resistance in the 4445 ES area, and on a failure the obvious next target in the 4350 area. With that rally high yesterday at 4449 and the overnight low last night at 4347 I was pretty pleased with that call. If you’d like to see that video it is here.

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What If … We See SPX Retest 3800

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Everything is in the groove from my post yesterday. NDX and ESTX50 made new all time highs yesterday. SPX and Dow made new all time highs today, RUT retested the August high today, making the second high of a possible double top. Only DAX looks slightly short of a new all time high but that may well be made too on Monday.

I had a look at all of these in my premarket video at theartofchart.net this morning and posted that on my twitter. If you missed that and would like to see it, you can see that here.

Obviously there is a chance that everything breaks up further here, so I’m carefully watching the well established resistance trendlines on SPX and NDX. The SPX wedge resistance trendline is currently in the 4450-5 area.

SPX 60min chart:

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Retesting Strong Resistance Here

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SPX and NDX held the strong resistance they were testing a week ago, retraced a bit, and are now close to testing them again. I have been expecting new all time highs on both, and NDX has made a new all time high today, but SPX is still a bit short and likely needs to make a new one too.

Both RSI 14 and RSI 5 daily sell signals are now fixed on SPX, and if resistance holds again, then next short term high at least is close.

SPX daily chart:

SPX Daily
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