Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

One Last Heave

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The triangle broke up as expected and SPX has made a new ATH with some confidence. This kind of setup delivers a termination move and that’s what we are expecting here. That could fail at any time but the high window runs through to 7th February and we are expecting a high towards the end of the high window.

The usual sequence when a triangle breaks is that there is then a backtest of broken triangle resistance, often back into the triangle, and then the termination thrust (up in this instance) begins. That backtest doesn’t always happen but most of the time it does, so I’m assuming we’ll see that here as long as SPX stays under 2300. SPX 60min chart:

170125 SPX 60min

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Possible Triangle Break Up Coming Next

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SPX retraced a little deeper than I expected yesterday and I’ve adjusted the support trendline but on the RSI 14 the low was exactly at triangle support and this is a decent looking triangle. The next target within the triangle would be to triangle resistance, currently in the 2276 area. Stan’s looking for a very possible break up there. SPX 60min chart:

170124 SPX 60min

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The Triangle on SPX

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One characteristic feature of the SPX tape over the last few months has been the tendency for the tape to just get lost in space chopping sideways for extended periods. Today is day thirteen of the current range-bound doldrums, and looking back on the others they all resolved into a break down of whatever size, sometimes after a high retest. That’s not encouraging for seeing SPX break much over the current all time high. SPX daily chart:

170121 SPX Daily

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Inauguration Day

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Stan and I did a webinar on fibonacci retracements and extensions last night at theartofchart.net, and if you would like to see the recording you can find that here. That’s looking very topical this morning as I was showing a number of fibonacci retracements on various timeframes there, and on the ES & TF charts that I did for Daily Video Service members after the webinar, I was talking about the fib retrace levels that ES & TF hit at the lows yesterday. You can see yesterday night’s comments on the charts below of course.

On ES the rising channel broke down in the morning and the LOD was a 50% retracement of the channel. I mentioned that this was a very possible place to start the last leg up if ES could convert the weekly pivot at 2264.75 to support and that’s looking good so far this morning. No ATH retest yet but getting closer. ES Mar 60min chart:

170120 AM ES Mar 60min

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Rising Channel Established on ES

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Boring tape so far this week but the interesting news yesterday on ES was that a rising channel was established from the 2227 low. Channel support is now at 2260.75 and a break below would be bearish. All of ES, NQ & TF are now on weak 60min buy signals, so my lean is that channel support holds and ES has a decent chance of making the all time high retest today or tomorrow, though the tape this week so far has been memorably dull. ES Mar 60min chart:

170119 AM ES Mar 60min

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