springheel_jack – Page 124 – Slope of Hope with Tim Knight

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Following Through ….. Probably

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (06, Apr 2017 12:28:31 PM)

Yesterday was a very interesting day and in the end delivered a second failed attempt to break over the daily middle band on SPX and a very bearish daily candle that may have opened up the downside. Needless to say that candle requires confirmation, and we are still waiting to see whether bears can deliver that.

I won’t show it here but the rally from the lows on SPX has delivered a perfect rising wedge back to the 50% retracement and that rising wedge has broken down. That is a clear bear flag setup that should deliver at least a retest of the low at 2348.90, and likely lower. If the bear scenario is playing out then the high today at 2364.16 should hold, barring a possible retest to make the second high of a double top. On a break with confidence above the odds of the bears dropping the ball badly here will increase dramatically.

On a continuation down below 2348 there are two possible support trendlines that I’ll be watching. The first is a possible triangle support trendline in the 2340 area, and the second is falling megaphone support, currently in the 2300 area. SPX 60min chart:

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Another Knife Fight at Resistance

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (05, Apr 2017 11:40:38 AM)

Yesterday’s knife fight resolved up and SPX closed the day at another test of the daily middle band from below. SPX gapped over the middle band at the open and looked as though a trend day was in store until SPX/ES hit declining resistance from the high. That broke up slightly on SPX and has been tested at the high on ES, but held so far. Bulls need to break above 2380 SPX / 2377 ES and bears need a close back under the daily middle band, currently at 2363. Whichever way this breaks may well determine direction for the next few days.

SPX 60min chart:

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Knife Fight For Direction

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (04, Apr 2017 11:51:56 AM)

Even if SPX resolves up here, and I’m leaning slightly towards that, the bears have impressed so far this week just by putting up an impressive fight on two consecutive days with very strong historical stats. As a general rule bears are barely noticeable as roadkill on days like these, so regardless of the outcome that is a show of some strength.

However to win this particular battle bears need to convert first the 50 hour MA and then the weekly pivot on ES, and that’s not happened so far at least. The longer that support holds the more dip buyers will be encouraged.

On SPX a triangle is forming that would lean 70% bearish, but at the moment that is trying to break up. Key resistance above is at the open gap at Friday’s close at 2368.06. That is a possible breakaway gap down until it is filled. SPX 60min chart:

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Testing the New Weekly Pivots

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (03, Apr 2017 11:03:43 AM)

Bulls needed to confirm Thursday’s break above the SPX daily middle band with a second close above the middle band on Friday, but didn’t manage it. We’re seeing a reaction to that fail so far today. SPX has broken below important trend support at the 50 hour MA, currently at 2355, and if that can be converted to resistance then that would support a possible retest of the daily lower band on the daily chart. SPX 60min chart:

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Drifting Up

By springheel_jack - 9 years ago (31, Mar 2017 12:09:15 PM)

The third day of the 5dma Three Day Rule came and went without a break down, and SPX closed yesterday above the daily middle band in a clear win for bulls. That needs to be confirmed with another close above the middle band today, and that is currently at 2364.

On the hourly chart the 50 hour MA has been converted to support, currently at 2353, and SPX is trying to do the same with the 100 and 200 hour MAs, currently at 2362 and 2366 respectively. If those convert too then the next target will be falling megaphone resistance, currently in the 2377 area, and I’d note that the falling megaphone is a likely bull flag on the bigger picture, so if that megaphone resistance breaks then the minimum target is then a retest of the all time high. SPX 60min chart:

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