Yesterday morning’s bear flags broke down harder than expected and on SPX the move delivered a hard test of the daily middle band. That’s not inherently bearish as long as that holds as support and it did. Unless that changes the obvious target remains a full retest of the all time high. SPX daily chart:
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H-Bomb News Permitting
I was talking in my last post on Wednesday morning about the bull flag channel on SPX that then broke up with a minimum target at a retest of the all time high, and that is still unfinished business above that should be hit, subject of course to a negative development in the ongoing megalomaniac sociopath with an H-Bomb news stream. SPX 60min chart:
NDX made all upside targets last week at the retest of the all time high, but there’s still an open RSI 14 buy signal on the RUT daily chart that is likely to deliver some more upside and may deliver an all time high retest there of course. RUT daily chart:
The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.
The key level on ES this week is clearly 2458.25, with both the new weekly and monthly pivots at that exact number this week. The action since the news gap down looks like a small bear flag forming so the odds are decent that level will be tested today or tomorrow. ES Sep 60min chart:
Similar setup on NQ with the same broken rising wedge and short term, likely bear flag forming. Again weekly and monthly pivot are close and in effect action as double support. NQ Sep 60min chart:
There is still an open 60min sell signal on TF, but I’m doubtful about that reaching the weekly and monthly pivot support area there. TF Sep 60min chart:
The pattern setup here is a clear retracement with unfinished business above, news permitting of course. Ideally that delivers a test of 2458.25 ES today that holds, give or take three or four handles, and then delivers the all time high retest later this week or early next week. I’m assuming that we see that retest until demonstrated otherwise but I’m not expecting much more than that. Hopefully that gets clearer on the way there.
Stan and I did our monthly free public Chart Chat webinar at theartofchart.net on Sunday,and if you would like to see the recording then you can see that on our September Free Webinars page. This week’s edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we’re thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That’s a free weekly service and if you trade futures I’d suggest adding it to your reading list.
A Moment Of Clarity
A week ago I commented on my SPX hourly chart that the obvious target for this move was falling channel resistance and SPX finally hit that at the high yesterday. After the confused mess of the last five days of trading that at last gives a clear setup here.
This falling channel is a likely bull flag which on a break up would have a minimum target at a retest of the all time high. The rising wedge from the March low has already retraced over 38.2% of the wedge so SPX could break up now into that retest. The open 60min buy signal likes that option and arguably so does the falling megaphone that has formed on the RSI 14 over the last few days. On the other hand a reversal here could well still reach the ideal 50% retracement target at 2405 that I gave at the end of July. Channel support is now in the 2395 area and a little low for that but there are a couple of alternate falling wedge support trendline options that could deliver a low close to that number. (more…)
Compressing To Go Somewhere
After Tuesday’s trend up day the obvious target for a retracement on ES was a backtest of the weekly pivot and we have been seeing that tested over the last two days, repeatedly. So far bears haven’t managed to convert that to resistance, but they haven’t stopped trying, and they may still succeed. ES Sep 60min chart:
Patriots And Tyrants
One of my favorite Thomas Jefferson quotes is that ‘the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants’. Among other things that’s a reminder that all the powers of the state, however benign or harmless they may seem, are ultimately based on force and the threat of force, and every so often the use of violent means is inevitable either to maintain, alter or curtail that power.
What’s my point? Well markets are similar in the sense that any trend needs to be refreshed from time to time with the extraction of red ink either from those who challenge it, or those who defend it, sometimes both. In a downtrend that often involves a backtest of the daily middle band and it looks like we have another of those coming up shortly. (more…)
