This is the third week that SpaceX has traded, and it isn’t doing at all badly. It is exceptionally richly-valued as a company, and although it is 25% lower than its IPO peak, it is still well above the $135 offering price and has launched nicely off the base at $150 it established last week.
Having said that, I think the other mega-IPOs are in trouble. You can sniff this out by seeing how the ETFs dedicated to getting pre-IPO stock are doing. SpaceX sucked all of the oxygen out of the room.
I’d like to humbly offer the following predictions:
- Anthropic will manage to go public first (that is to say, before OpenAI), perhaps as soon as this autumn.
- If and when it does, it will receive plenty of attention (not nearly as much as SpaceX, but still a lot) and its performance in its first few weeks will absolutely dictate whether or not OpenAI goes public in the foreseeable future.
- If, in fact, Anthropic’s post-IPO behavior is anything but splendid, it’s going to be a long time, if ever, that OpenAI can get itself out into the public markets, perhaps not even doing so in 2027.
