Doubt

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In case you haven’t heard, SpaceX is quite public now. The company’s IPO went off sensationally, and in its third day of trading it looks like it will be three-for-three making lifetime highs. One would think that this would electrify excitement about forthcoming IPOs, considering how smashingly this one went.

Which leads me to the topic of this post: a public entity called Fundrise Innovation whose symbol is VCX. Its philosophy is summed up neatly on its home page:

Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think this notion is absolute horseshit. I’ll illuminate my disposition in a moment.

The company’s main holdings are as follows:

The premise is pretty easy to grasp:

  • AI is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity;
  • The private companies that are leaders in this space are undervalued;
  • Venture Capitalists (who are not “everyday Americans”) have heretofore enjoyed getting these companies on the cheap before they come public and would “lock out” Joe Sixpack;
  • Thanks to the generosity of the good people at Fundrise, you, too, can get your claws onto these sweet organizations before they skyrocket

If you want to see what kind of magic AI is working at large, already-public companies, take a look at what hyperscaling is doing to the likes of Oracle and its free cash flow:

And in case you’re wondering how some of the hottest IPOs fare once they finally get out the door, I’ll direct your attention to the likes of Cerebras and Figma:

CBRS

FIG

Which is probably why VCX is worth 17 cents for every dollar it was worth at its peak, just a few days after its own public offering.

If the SpaceX story can’t goose this pig, nothing can. I daresay that this sucker has a lot farther to fall, and that the nitwits who actually buy into the idea that they are somehow getting a bargain in a “once in a generation opportunity” thanks to the democratization of finance truly get what they deserve.